Lance's Most Valuable Player Candidates
Unlike all the other award articles I’ve written, I have 5 players (sort of) that I feel may be viewed as having been snubbed.
Let’s start with Drew Brees and Tom Brady. As long as they are both starting under Center, they both have a chance at taking home MVP. The talent around them is not lacking. The coaches calling the shots are not lacking. And their intelligence and grasp of the game is not lacking. So why don’t they make my list? Age. The ever-equalizing factor. A lot of people tried to argue that Brees should’ve won MVP in 2018, but they were kidding themselves. Yes, the Saints had a great season and Brees showed off again, but statistically he was blown away by Mahomes who was lighting up scoreboards and also taking his Chiefs back to the playoffs. Brady seems to get the job done year in and year out, but his stats haven’t been premier since 2015. His 4,770 passing yards and 36 touchdowns from that season are the type of stats he would need to post to be taken as a serious MVP candidate these days. So, while both of these men can outplay opponents on the field, win big games and make their teams Super Bowl contenders, neither is at the age where they can try and match Mahomes’ crazy passing yards/touchdown totals, or Lamar Jackson’s ability to dominate on the ground and through the air. Nor are either one of these men able to create the highlights that those other two do.
Michael Thomas/Christian McCaffrey. If you read my OPOY article you’ll understand the statistical side of what they’ll have to do this year just to be taken seriously for awards. There is one big aspect for why they don’t make my list. They aren’t Quarterbacks. I think it’s complete and utter nonsense as much as the next guy, but the MVP award is dominated by Quarterbacks. The only way a non-QB is looked at is if they are on the verge of shattering a major record and their team is in the running for the playoffs largely due to them. I don’t see either one of these guys improving on their tremendous 2019 seasons, so there goes the record portion of what they would need.
All defensive players. Every year analysts try to make it seem like a defender has a chance at winning MVP, but that’s a joke. This league does not have enough respect for star defensive players for them to be taken as serious MVP candidates. In order for a defensive player to actually win MVP this league would have to stop putting so much emphasis on the Quarterback position. Defense wins championships, that’s the motto, yet Quarterbacks get the most credit for winning games. And ultimately that’s the big piece that puts QBs above all other positions when analysts start voting for who they think was the MVP.
Here are my top 5:
1) QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City)
Reason: Mahomes will spend most if not all of his career on the preseason MVP Candidates list. He may get bumped off by someone like me who sees the insane numbers he posted the previous season and realizes he probably won’t replicate them, but for others he’ll still find his way onto the list. Last season was a “down” year due to injury, but he still managed to finish 10th in passing yards and tied for 8th in passing touchdowns, not to mention leading his team to the playoffs and further, but postseason doesn’t have a chance to play into the voting. If he stays healthy for the entire season those numbers will shoot back up and he’ll be at the top of a lot of MVP voting boards.
2) QB Lamar Jackson (Baltimore)
Reason: What he was able to do last year was nothing short of amazing and that’s why he won MVP. Increasing on the rushing numbers and the win total is going to be extremely difficult, but he should have his team in the hunt for the #1 seed in the AFC, and his passing numbers are beatable, so he remains high on my list. Not to mention his athletic ability is just freaky and he’s a highlight reel waiting to happen.
3) QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)
Reason: To me, Wilson gets the least amount of respect of any Quarterback in this league. He’s been in the league for 8 seasons. His teams have only had one season where they finished in the single digits for win total (9) and that was also the only season they failed to make the playoffs. He has a career QBR of 101.4, he’s started every game in all 8 seasons and he’s one of the most entertaining escape artists in the NFL. That second stat is the most impressive to me because he’s never had a good Offensive Line in front of him. He also brings the dual threat ability, not to the extent of Jackson, but he’s good on the run in his own way. The problem is his Seattle teams keep winning, so there isn’t a chance at a significant increase in win totals, and his stats haven’t hit that Mahomes factor through the air, or Jackson factor on the ground (though 2014 was pretty close). Wilson is my favorite Quarterback of this generation (Peyton Manning was my favorite growing up, so it was a pretty nice transition for me). The way he plays the game and the way he just gets the job done should always give him, at the very least, a thought when it comes time to vote.
4) QB Dak Prescott (Dallas)
Reason: This one will catch the most flack, but even if you aren’t a Cowboys fan (and I’m not) you have to get where I’m coming from, so take off your bias “I hate Dallas” hats and hear me out. Prescott is coming off the best statistical season of his career, putting up almost 1,100 more passing yards than his previous high and 7 more touchdowns through the air. So, what did Dallas do? They went out and added another high-end pass catcher in Ceedee Lamb. On top of that, Dallas’ defense got worse. Prescott is going to find himself in a lot of shootouts this season. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to pile on the stats, with plenty of weapons to get the ball to and his team plays in a very winnable division. Now, if he decides to holdout for a new deal, then he’ll plummet off this list.
5) QB Kyler Murray (Arizona)
Reason: Murray is my dark horse. He’ll need a lot to go in his favor in order for this to work out, but it is possible. First, he’ll need the Cardinals to finish with a winning record and at the very least be in the running for a playoff spot heading into the last week of the season. Second, he’ll need to cut down on his interception total and post a few more passing touchdowns. And third, we’re gonna need some more highlight reel plays. That’s the signature, the part that sticks in a voter’s mind. Given his athleticism he is more than capable of putting together a highlight reel. It may be a tall order, but I think he and the team can get it done. It would also give him a chance to be the third straight player to win MVP in their second season.