Lance's Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidates
I’ve got six players that some may want to see on this list, but that I have reasons for excluding. I’m going to try and keep this section as short as possible.
Tua Tagovailoa/Justin Herbert do not make my list because we don’t yet know when they’re going to see the field. My prediction is that Tua will start shortly before week 8 and Herbert shortly after week 8. That’s not a lot of time for the two of them to rack up the stats and push toward taking home OROY.
Ceedee Lamb/Jerry Jeudy don’t make my list because of the offenses they are joining. Lamb is going to have to compete with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for passes, plus Blake Jarwin is going to steal away targets. Jeudy will have to compete with Sutton, but that won’t be that bad, the bigger concern is that while I do have high hopes for Lock, there is a chance he takes a step backward in year 2.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire/DeAndre Swift are the two out of these six that I think have the best chance to make a run. My biggest concern for CEH is that he doesn’t have the size to take the beating as a pro and he doesn’t have the speed to counter his lack of size. I wasn’t a fan of him being the Running Back the Chiefs selected in the first. I have durability concerns for Swift in that I don’t believe he can be a workhorse RB as a pro, luckily for him he’ll pair with Kerryon Johnson in Detroit, unluckily for him that will hurt his chances to pile on the stats.
Here’s my top 5:
1) WR Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
Reason: Rivers to Pittman, we are going to see that a lot this year and it’s the reason I think Pittman is going to take home OROY. He’s the big athletic type of Receiver that Rivers loves. Plus, Hilton and Campbell will help take some attention off of him without stealing his thunder.
2) QB Joe Burrow (Cincinnati)
Reason: Burrow will likely be the #1 candidate for most, and a lot of that has to do with the position he plays. His Offensive Line is shaky (a healthy Jonah Williams may help with that). His Receiver unit has a lot of talent, but there are questions there too. If everything around Burrow goes right, he’ll win OROY. But the injury concerns at Receiver, shaky O-Line and the overall state of Cincinnati keep him out of my #1 slot.
3) RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Tampa Bay)
Reason: Vaughn wasn’t the first back drafted in April; he wasn’t even one of the first 5 Backs taken, but he fell into arguably the best situation possible. He has the skillset and size to be an every down back. His competition for the role is Ronald Jones who hasn’t shown the flash to be a RB1. And Brady loves backs who can catch out of the backfield. His dual-threat ability will give him a shot to be a dark horse to win this award, the amount of talent the Bucs have in the pass game will keep teams from stacking the box.
4) WR Justin Jefferson (Minnesota)
Reason: Jefferson has a sure-fire line to a large target share in the Vikings offense. Diggs is out and the Vikings Receivers beyond Jefferson aren’t real threats to taking the vacant starting role. His size-speed combo makes him a threat to break off big gains on short throws. As long as he can play well on the outside while Thielen is playing in the Slot he’s going to excel.
5) RB Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis)
Reason: With the weapons in Indy’s pass game Taylor is going to dominate on the ground. However, he’s not exactly known for his prowess catching passes and that role is likely to be stolen by Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. If this was last season, he could have pushed for OROY without having the dual threat stats, this year will be a little more difficult, but he could still get it done with a high enough statistical output.
