Lance's Post-Season Predictions
At the beginning of the season I made predictions on who I thought would win the major awards and who I thought would make the Super Bowl. With the 2020 regular season in the books I have made my final decisions. My original Super Bowl prediction could still happen (Indy vs New Orleans), but I’ve gone in a slightly different direction. As for my awards, well there’s been some pretty big changes, and I’ll touch on those in the awards section. First, my Super Bowl prediction:
Baltimore over New Orleans
I took Baltimore out of the AFC because they have the talent on both sides of the ball and they have a full head of steam as we enter the playoffs. I think they become the team that pops up every few years that makes a run to the Super Bowl thanks to a late season surge. Also, I’m looking for Jackson to follow in Mahomes’ footsteps. Win MVP and then win the Super Bowl the following season. I’m taking New Orleans out of the NFC because they’re the most complete looking team in a conference full of teams with holes. I don’t see any team from the NFC winning the Super Bowl because each team has more issues than my mind when things are out of place. The Saints, Packers and Bucs have the best chance of going, their biggest problems from early in the season have shrunk, but not completely. The Saints got the nod over the other two thanks to their stars returning to the lineup, one of which, Michael Thomas, has been out for most of the season, yet they’ve still managed to go 12-4.
Super Bowl I’d really like to see: Indianapolis over Seattle
I want Rivers to get a ring before he hangs it up, he deserves it. After everything he did for the Chargers. After all those games started, even the ones when everyone knew he was banged up but he refused to sit out and let his team down. After watching his team botch draft pick after draft pick and failing to put a decent Line in front of him while also supplying him with a defense that could compete simultaneously. The man deserves a shot, so here’s to hoping the Colts can ride their defense and run game to a Super Bowl. I’d like to see Seattle go from the NFC for Russell Wilson. Do you remember the talks of “is Peyton HOF worthy with only one ring?” Cause I do. That’s of course laughable, his statistics and what he did for the game would have been enough to get him in the HOF, ring or no ring. But there will always be those critics who point to how many rings a QB has on their hand. Wilson has one. He was robbed of another. He’s now 32, which means he’s anywhere from 3-10 years away from retirement barring serious injury. I’d like to see him get at least one more chance at that elusive second championship.
AWARDS
I treated this section as if I was one of the people who gets to vote on the award, so you will see the player I would have picked and I included “the next closest” player on my board for each award. Before the season kicked off I picked Dak Prescott for MVP (Hurt), Alvin Kamara for OPOY (COVID to close out the year), Von Miller for DPOY (Hurt), Joe Burrow for OROY (Hurt), Isaiah Simmons for DROY, Baker Mayfield for CPOY, and Kevin Stefanski for COY. As you can see, it probably wasn’t a good thing if I picked them. And out of all of those names two of them remain as my selection for their awards.
MVP: RB Derrick Henry (Tennessee)
2,027 yards rushing, the last back to eclipse 2,000 yards was Adrian Peterson in his MVP season. On top of the yardage, he posted 17 touchdowns on the ground and even added 114 receiving yards. Henry was a big reason, if not the biggest reason, for Tennessee going 11-5 and winning the AFC South for the first time since 2008. It was also the first time since 2008 that they finished the regular season with a double-digit win total. He deserves recognition for what he was able to accomplish this year.
The next closest - QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City) - All due respect to Rodgers (who was a very close third), Mahomes would be my #2. The Chiefs were the only team going into the final week that had their position in the playoffs locked in and because of that they could rest their starters. Mahomes still finished the season with 4,740 yards passing (441 more than Rodgers), 38 touchdowns (10 less than Rodgers), plus he had the bonus of 308 rushing yards, and of course one more win than Rodgers despite playing one less game.
OPOY: RB Alvin Kamara (New Orleans)
Had it not been for COVID he probably would’ve been a serious competitor for MVP. OPOY is supposed to go to the best offensive player all around since winning weighs so heavily into the MVP race. Kamara totaled 1,688 yards (932 rushing, 756 receiving) and he had 21 total touchdowns. And if we’re being really honest, he was the reason the Saints did as well as they did this year after losing Brees for a chunk of games, Thomas for most of the season and their defense playing shoddy football for at least half the year.
The next closest - TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City) - If Michael Thomas can win OPOY because he set the record for most receptions and do so in a season when CMC became the third player to go for 1,000/1,000, then Kelce should and will get serious consideration this year. He set the new record for receiving yards by a Tight End in a season (1,416), he also hit 105 receptions and 11 touchdowns, all of which is very impressive. Oh, and his 1,416 receiving yards was 2nd(!) overall for the entire NFL.
DPOY: LB Roquan Smith (Chicago)
If you want to just crown Watt DPOY I get it, I really do. Getting after the Quarterback and bringing him down is what’s flashy in today’s game, but don’t ignore what Roquan Smith did this season. He finished with 139 total tackles, 18 of them for loss, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 2 interceptions, 7 pass deflections and on top of all of that he only accrued 9 missed tackles. That’s a phenomenal season.
The next closest - OLB T.J. Watt (Pittsburgh) - Watt made this a difficult selection for me. He totaled 53 tackles, 23 for loss, 15 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 7 pass deflections. To go with that he accounted for 20 QB hurries, 19 QB knockdowns and 55 pressures. He was the de facto leader for one of the top defenses in the league. He will end up winning the award, I’d be shocked if he didn’t, but Smith’s play got my vote. Small shoutout to Xavien Howard who was very difficult to leave off this list with his 10 interceptions, 20 pass deflections and 48.4 completion percentage against.
OROY: WR Justin Jefferson (Minnesota)
This was a very close race, but I’m taking Jefferson for breaking the rookie receiving yards record that was set back in 2003. Herbert of course set the rookie passing touchdowns record and broke a few smaller records along the way, but the rookie passing touchdowns record was set just 3 years ago. With the way the league is now, you almost come to expect a passing record to be broken every year. The same cannot be said for Receiving records. Receiver is often referred to as one of the hardest positions to adjust to coming out of college, but here Jefferson stands as the best rookie Receiver since OBJ, and a new record broken after 17 years.
The next closest - QB Justin Herbert (LA Chargers) - I see the appeal of voting for Herbert, he definitely has the stats (4,336 yards passing, 31 touchdowns), so I won’t be surprised if he wins it over Jefferson. Had Jefferson not set the new rookie receiving yards record I would have listed Herbert as my pick. Side note: prior to Jefferson there were four rookie Receivers to hit 1,000 yards Receiving in their first 12 games. Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Odell Beckham Jr. and Marques Colston. Colston was the only one to not win OROY. He lost to Vince Young. Is that really a group Herbert wants to join?
DROY: LB Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
Young has gotten most (if not all) of the attention for DROY. Chinn deserves more respect. He finished the season with 116 total tackles, 2 for loss, a sack, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 5 pass deflections and 2 touchdowns. He was a monster and the best looking player on Carolina’s defense.
The next closest - DE Chase Young (Washington) - Now that I’ve touched on why Chinn would get my vote, let’s discuss why Young is getting so much attention. Statistically he wasn’t out of this world, but he was solid. 44 total tackles, 10 for loss, 7.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 4 pass deflections and a touchdown. The bigger piece was that he was very much the leader of one of the best defenses in the NFL. This defense is only going to get scarier, and Young is going to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
CPOY: QB Alex Smith (Washington)
Can you really not vote for Smith? Regardless of stats, his recovery was nothing short of miraculous and the fact he was able to step foot on a football field again should earn him votes for CPOY. You add on the fact that he was the starter for 5 of Washington’s 7 wins and played an important role in Washington getting to the playoffs, and it really becomes difficult to take this award away from him.
The next closest - Edge/LB Haason Reddick (Arizona) - Reddick had already received the “BUST” label after averaging just 6 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks through his first three seasons. The Cardinals drafted him hoping that he’d give them a much needed boost to their pass rush while providing some fun maneuverability through the middle of the field. This year he finished with 15 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks (leading Arizona) and he’s officially created quite the conundrum for the Cards this offseason. This isn’t what you’d usually think of when thinking of a “comeback” player since he didn’t really come back from anything, but there isn’t a “Zero to Hero” award, so this is the group that those guys usually fall into.
COY: Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland)
This one should be really easy. There are plenty of other coaches who did some pretty significant things this year, but Stefanski brought the Browns back to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. He got a group of guys that were in complete disarray in 2019 to actually play like a team. And he turned Baker Mayfield from that borderline bust category, to a QB who is good enough to not tank his team. That last part was a little rough, but you get what I mean. Mayfield went from having a 22-21 TD-INT ratio to a 26-8 TD-INT ratio, his QBR went from 78.8 to 95.9 and his completion rate went from 59.4 to 62.8. So not only did he give Cleveland and their fan base a taste of being relevant again, he saved Mayfield’s career.
The next closest - Ron Rivera (Washington) - First the off the field angle. Rivera coached this season while also going through cancer treatment. The fact that he was able to do that should not be understated. Second the on the field angle. Rivera took a 3-13 team and turned them into a 7-9 unit in just one season. A season most people expected them to finish last in their division, but they won it. He returned them to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 which is also the last time they won the NFC East. If it weren’t for Stefanski getting the Browns into the playoffs, Rivera would have gotten my vote.
