Lance's Rookie Fantasy Ninjas 2022
Every season we see at least one rookie pop-up out of nowhere, and often that player helps push their fantasy team through the playoffs. Some recent examples were Darius Slayton (5th round pick in 2019 and #35 WR in fantasy), James Robinson (Undrafted in 2020 and #7 RB in fantasy) and Elijah Mitchell (6th round pick in 2021 and #26 RB in fantasy). So, I started working on a little statistical project where I looked at round drafted and the round range I gave them from my draft board project to determine the percent chance a rookie has at being a starter (or flex player) at their position in fantasy land. (Note: I used the last four years worth of rookies and where they finished in the rankings to find the existing percentages). I made sure to avoid players I've already hyped up in my other articles like Romeo Doubs and Zamir White, so below you will see five guys that scored decently well percentage wise and are in situations that could potentially be fruitful. Here are my top five ninjas to watchout for:
5) RB Abram Smith (New Orleans) - Undrafted
Smith and Corbin were both undrafted Running Backs that graded well in my draft board project. Smith's value would be early on in the season if Kamara is suspended. Mark Ingram still has some gas left in the tank, but he'd benefit from having a running mate. Smith will have to beat out Tony Jones and Malcolm Brown, but I believe he has a shot at getting the job done.
4) RB Jashaun Corbin (NY Giants) - Undrafted
Corbin's path is not as obvious as Smith's. Barkley was extremely inefficient last season, and has dealt with injuries since his second year. The Giants did sign Matt Breida this offseason, but he's never been a bell-cow back. In other words, if Corbin can prove himself this training camp/preseason he'll be an injury to Barkley away from at least splitting carries.
3) WR Calvin Austin III (Pittsburgh) - 4th round
Austin would have been all over my other articles instead of Doubs had the Steelers not invested an early draft pick on another Receiver. I believe Austin is a better option than Pickens, but the waters are murky. Pitt does need a WR3 though, and the competition for that spot will likely be between Austin and Pickens.
2) WR Kyle Philips (Tennessee) - 5th round
This one completely caught me by surprise, but in my statistical percentage projections this 5th round pick landed at 8th among the Receivers. The possibilities are there too as Tennessee introduces fellow rookie Treylon Burks and newcomer Robert Woods (who is returning from injury) to their starting cast.
1) RB Pierre Strong Jr. (New England) - 4th round
The Pats taking Strong in the 4th round may have been more preparation for next season. However, Damien Harris has missed 8 games over the last two seasons, and Rhamondre Stevenson is more of a short yardage kind of back. If Harris gets hurt, Strong can be the lightning to Stevenson's thunder.
