Lance's Week 10 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks.
For note, I did pick Tennessee on Thursday night, but was unable to get the article posted prior, probably for the best since they got blown out.
Overall Record: 80-52-1
NY Giants over Philadelphia
Matchup 1.0 ended with Philly on top 22-21. This game should have similar chutzpah, but I’m going with the Giants who see the light at the top of the NFC East just at the ends of their fingertips.
Green Bay over Jacksonville
A Quarterback seeing the field for the first time always has the benefit of the element of surprise. Teams don’t have film to go off of, except for college film which really isn’t the same thing. But with one game in the bag the Packers should have an idea of what to expect from Jake Luton and they’ll be able to adjust their defensive scheme accordingly. Plus, with all due respect to the kid, I don’t see a way in which he’s able to keep up with Rodgers, Jones and Adams.
Washington over Detroit
Smith’s performance last week started off a little bumpy and it did end with two interceptions in the final three minutes, but in between he seemed to find his comfort zone. Knowing that he’s coming into this game as the starter should give him ample opportunity to properly prepare himself, with the added bonus of getting to face the ever-disappointing Detroit defense.
Cleveland over Houston
Watson, Fuller and Cooks should be fantasy darlings this week, but in the end I believe it will be Cleveland led by Kareem Hunt and potentially Nick Chubb as the Browns run all over the Texans and control the clock.
Carolina over Tampa Bay
Tampa was thoroughly embarrassed on Monday night and now they’re heading into what can somewhat be described as a trap game. Carolina is better than most expected prior to the season, and everyone should recognize that by now and prepare accordingly. But I see the Panthers getting the better of their division rivals. CMC is out, but that’s something they’ve dealt with for most of the season. Bridgewater has a great rapport with Anderson and Moore who combined for 229 yards in the first game between these two. All Bridgewater needs to do this time is avoid throwing costly interceptions.
Miami over LA Chargers
Tua vs Herbert! Had the Chargers just started Herbert from the get-go we could’ve seen Burrow vs Herbert too. The young Quarterbacks from this draft class are already showing that the future of the position is bright. I’m giving the edge to Miami in this one, not because of the QBs though, it’s Miami’s defense that I believe will be the deciding factor.
Las Vegas over Denver
The Broncos offense has some good momentum going and they almost became the latest team to destroy Atlanta in the fourth quarter. The Raiders are clicking on offense as well and they have the playoffs in their sites. I’m taking the more experienced hand of Derek Carr.
Arizona over Buffalo
Buffalo may have just torched Seattle’s pass defense, but who hasn’t? The more impressive part was seeing Buffalo’s defense finally play like the top ten unit I expected coming into 2020. If they can play like that again this week they should walk away with another win, but they’ve been too inconsistent, which is why I’m taking the Cardinals who just lost a heartbreaker to Miami.
New Orleans over San Francisco
San Francisco is still devastated by injuries, so New Orleans should be able to take care of them without any real trouble.
Seattle over LA Rams
Fun Fact, the Seahawks have not swept the Rams since the 2013 season. Even in those awful final seasons of the Jeff Fisher era, the Rams still managed to win at least one game in the series. Seattle’s defense is bad enough to let the Rams escape with one, but I don’t think it will be this week, I just don’t see the Seahawks falling two weeks in a row.
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
This may kind of be Big Ben related. He injured both of his knees in last week’s game, but he did come back to finish the game, and now he’s on the COVID watch list, so he currently has to quarantine and he’ll have to test negative before he’ll be allowed to play. It all makes for one of those ripe weeks where a hard fighting two-win team upsets the top of the league Steelers.
Baltimore over New England
I reference it below too; I think this game is going to be really ugly for the Patriots. Their biggest weakness defensively has been stopping the run, and the Ravens primary goal is to establish the run. Not to mention Newton has been very turnover prone and that’s something Baltimore’s defense will take full advantage of. They have arguably the best ball hawk in the league in Marcus Peters.
Minnesota over Chicago
This might be the week where Foles looks like he could turn into a shining star for the Bears, just know that it’s not because of his potential talent it’s because the Vikings pass defense is that bad. The Vikings are rocking right now because Cook is on a hot streak and I believe he’ll continue that here despite Chicago’s rough and tumble defense. They are allowing over 100 yards rushing a game at 4.1 a clip. Cooks carries Minnesota to their third straight win.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 7-11
QB Start: Jared Goff vs Seattle
In case you haven’t heard Seattle’s pass defense is one of the worst ever. The only two Quarterbacks to not put up 20+ fantasy points on them, Cousins (the week the Vikings went up by a lot early and then tried to control the clock but failed), and Nick Mullens. Goff has had three subpar fantasy weeks in a row, but he’s next in line to have a big fantasy day.
QB Sit: Kirk Cousins at Chicago
With Cook doing his thing, Cousins and the passing game has thrived off play action and relaxed coverage. Don’t count on that working the same way this week. The Bears have not allowed a 300-yard passer this season and no QB has thrown for more than 2 touchdowns against them, so it’s very unlikely we see Cousins push 20 points again this week.
RB Record: 6-12
RB Start: Kareem Hunt vs Houston
There’s a chance Nick Chubb is active, but I’m here to tell you Hunt fantasy owners not to be afraid to start him anyways. When Chubb was healthy, Hunt was still seeing double-digit touches. And the Texans run defense is awful, it’s so bad in fact that they knew the Jaguars were going to heavily use James Robinson last week since they had a rookie under Center, and yet Robinson still posted 99 yards and a touchdown rushing.
RB Sit: Darrell Henderson vs Seattle
This game should turn into a pass heavy, arms race like most of Seattle’s games have. Unless Henderson can establish himself early he’s going to end up with a minimal impact in fantasy since he’s only seen 15 targets in the 7 games he’s been the primary RB for the Rams.
WR Record: 11-7
WR Start: Darnell Mooney vs Minnesota
The Vikings Corners haven’t been able to cover a Receiver to save their lives. Minnesota has allowed two Receivers to have double-digit fantasy weeks in four of the games they’ve played (i.e. both Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola went for 11+ points last week). I think Allen Robinson will have a great week, and I believe Mooney will too. He has 54 targets total this season and 24 of them have come in the last three weeks. He also has speed to burn which makes him a big play threat. Definitely worth a flex start if you’re in need of one this week.
WR Sit: Jakobi Meyers vs Baltimore
He had a good game two weeks ago and a great game last week. But last week was against the Jets and the Patriots are definitely not playing the Jets this week. His target share lately makes him difficult to pass on, but I don’t see him getting the best of Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith.
TE Record: 12-6
TE Start: Evan Engram vs Philadelphia
Engram has 17 receptions off 29 targets, 155 yards and 1 touchdown in the last three games. Given the Tight End position those are pretty sound numbers and the targets are spectacular. This three-week run kicked off with his first matchup against Philly, who gives up roughly 6 receptions and 60 yards a game to Tight Ends. They’ve also allowed six touchdowns to the Tight End position in their eight games. I’d consider Engram a must start this week unless you have Kelce, or possibly Hockenson.
TE Sit: Mark Andrews at New England
This might sound insane because Andrews is a big name at a thin position, but you have to look at the numbers. He’s scored under five points in five of his eight games. The three times he had big weeks came against Washington, Cincinnati (both rank top ten for fantasy points allowed to Tight Ends) and Cleveland who rank just outside the top ten. The Patriots have many issues but covering Tight Ends has not been one of them. They’ve allowed just two opposing Tight Ends to post 50 or more yards (Kelce [70] and Kittle [55]) and only one to score a touchdown (Fabian Moreau).
K Record: 9-9
K Start: Jason Sanders vs LA Chargers
If you need a streaming option this week look no further. Sanders has four Field Goals from 50+ yards, half of his games have resulted in double-digit fantasy performances, and his matchup this week is a favorable one. The Chargers defense hasn’t been very good, but they’re just good enough to occasionally force teams into Field Goal situations.
K Sit: Nick Folk vs Baltimore
Last week he was a start, but this week he needs to be on the other end of that spectrum. This game could get ugly, like the Patriots score in the 0-3 point range kind of ugly.
Defense Record: 13-5
Defense Start: New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco
New Orleans may have been dropped because they were playing Tampa last week, so check your waiver wire! The Saints defense had a great game against Brady, and they have an even easier matchup this week with Nick Mullens who has four picks and just five touchdowns in his five games.
Defense Sit: Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo
Josh Allen has shown a propensity for errant passes and fumblitis, but he did have a big week 9 performance and could carry over that momentum into this matchup. Basically, it’s better to be safe than sorry.
