Lance's Week 11 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Overall Record: 88-58-1
Seattle over Arizona
Murray got the better of Wilson in the first matchup and he’s coming off a huge last second win on a hail mary. That’s why I’m picking Seattle. This has the makings of a letdown game for Arizona, meanwhile Seattle has dropped two straight and they have to be angry about it.
Washington over Cincinnati
Both of these teams have shown some positives as of late. For Washington, Gibson, McLaurin and Smith have been bright spots on offense. For Cincy, Burrow and Higgins have continued to grow. The difference lies in their defenses. Washington ranks 5th in sacks, Cincinnati is tied for second to last. Washington has allowed the least amount of passing yards, Cincinnati has allowed the 10th most. Washington allows 4.3 YPC, Cincinnati allows 5 YPC. You get the gist. Also, this is a must win if Washington wants to remain in the running for the NFC East.
New Orleans over Atlanta
Even with Winston under Center it’s difficult not to pick the Saints. They’ve got Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook all back on the field, and Kamara is performing at an OPOY level. Winston has the arm to get the job done; he just needs to keep the ball in his player’s hands. Considering the Falcons allow a 105.6 QBR to opposing Quarterbacks, he should have a good shot at doing so.
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
Don’t be surprised when this game is way closer than it should be. But there’s no way I can take the Jaguars to upset the undefeated Steelers. I’d have to be out of my mind to do that.
New England over Houston
I went back and forth with this one. I think the Patriots are going to run at will on the Texans just like basically everyone else has, and that’s how they get the job done.
Cleveland over Philadelphia
This may be the most winnable game the Eagles have over the next five weeks. That’s not a knock on the Browns, that’s a point towards how difficult Philly has it until week 16. The Browns are a good team. They have the talent and coaching to handle a team like the Eagles who just seem to be lost every week.
Carolina over Detroit
Another game I went back and forth over. Their defenses are about the same level of dreadful. D’Andre Swift has taken some big steps forward and should have another great week. Mike Davis has been more than serviceable (excluding last week when the Panthers basically abandoned the run) while filling in for CMC and he’ll get plenty of good looks against the Lions. Ultimately it came down to the pass games and I gave the edge to Carolina because I like their trio of Moore, Anderson and Samuel better. If you take nothing else from these ramblings, make it this: if you have an offensive player from either of these teams on your fantasy team, get them in your lineup!
Tennessee over Baltimore
My first thought about this game was “Will the Titans dominate in the same manner they did during the playoffs, or will the Ravens shut them down because they’re still angry and bitter about it?” But then I realized that the actual factor that will determine this game is Mike Vrabel. If Lamar Jackson is correct and teams know exactly what play they’re about to run before the ball is snapped, then Vrabel is going to have the recipe for shutting them down.
LA Chargers over NY Jets
As difficult as it’s been for Herbert to come through at the end of the game, or for the Chargers defense to get a stop at the end of the game, I don’t think that will affect them this week because I don’t think they’ll be in that situation. Herbert and company should be able to dominate from the get go and have the Jets buried before the fourth quarter rolls around.
Miami over Denver
It’s simple, Miami is red hot right now led by their surprisingly dominant defense. Denver is ice cold with major questions hanging over their Quarterback situation.
Minnesota over Dallas
Cousins is playing with confidence (the kind we haven’t really seen since he christened the “You like that” slogan), Cook is having a phenomenal season excluding the Bears game this past week, and the Thielen-Jefferson duo is a killer. Dallas’ defense is in for a world of pain.
Indianapolis over Green Bay
I’m taking Indy because I believe their defense is going to cause fits for Green Bay. That and their Running Back committee could take full advantage of Green Bay’s struggle to stop the run, which becomes a bigger issue if they aren’t able to get out to an early, sizable lead.
Kansas City over Las Vegas
I would be shocked if the Raiders are able to get the better of the Chiefs twice. Kansas City is coming off their bye, they’re refreshed and ready exact a little revenge.
LA Rams over Tampa Bay
I touch on it below, but I’m gonna cover it here anyway, the Rams defense has been incredible. They are 3rd in passing yards allowed, 1st in passing touchdowns allowed, 3rd in QBR allowed, 5th in rushing yards allowed, and 6th in rushing touchdowns allowed. This is one of those games where you sit Brady (even though he’s not listed as my sit below).
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 7-13
QB Start: Kirk Cousins vs Dallas
Listed him as a sit last week, but get him in your lineups for this one! Dallas’ secondary has struggled against passing attacks that have two or more top notch Receivers and a capable Quarterback. Not to mention, Cook is running so well lately that they’re gonna have to stack the box to keep him from running for over 400 yards on them (slight exaggeration, but you get my point), that’ll open up the pass game.
QB Sit: Aaron Rodgers at Indianapolis
This may not be an option for you, but if it is then heed my warning. Rodgers has been fantastic this season with his one bad game coming against Tampa’s very good defense. Indy’s defense is better especially against the pass this season.
RB Record: 7-13
RB Start: D’Andre Swift at Carolina
Swift is heating up with four total double-digit fantasy performances in the last five weeks, two of them for over 20 points. Now he has a great matchup against the Panthers who just allowed Ronald Jones to run for 192 yards on them.
RB Sit: Todd Gurley at New Orleans
Gurley has been pretty solid in fantasy this season, but this is not a good matchup. The Saints are only allowing 3.3 YPC and they’ve only given up 5 touchdowns on the ground. Don’t count on Gurley getting to double digits this week.
WR Record: 11-9
WR Start: Terry McLaurin vs Cincinnati
McLaurin has been crazy good over the last few weeks. And while Cincy’s pass defense may look scary in fantasy (Yahoo sports has them listed as giving up the 16th fewest points to Receivers), they’re really not all that great against the pass. They allow about 11.9 YPR and they’ve given up 21 touchdown passes. McLaurin is really the only dominant Receiver Washington has, so he’ll be the best bet to take advantage of the situation.
WR Sit: Mike Evans vs LA Rams
Unlike the Bengals, the Rams have been very stingy against the pass. They allow less than 10 YPR and have only given up 9 touchdowns through the air. Since touchdowns are how Evans has thrived this season, I’d hold him out for this contest.
TE Record: 12-8
TE Start: Jared Cook vs Atlanta
Even if you take away Tonyan’s three touchdown performance against the Falcons they’ve still allowed five touchdowns to Tight Ends. They’ve also allowed five Tight Ends to go for 50 or more yards on them. So, while Brees likely miss Sunday, it’s still a great matchup for Cook. Plus, we all know Winston can sling it, we just don’t always know which direction it’ll go after the ball is released.
TE Sit: Noah Fant vs Miami
Compare the way Miami’s defense has been playing to the way Drew Lock has been throwing the ball and you can see why I’ve got Fant here. It’s hard to argue with the 53 targets he’s tallied on the season, but I don’t think you can trust him with Lock under Center and a defense like Miami’s on the other side of the field (that second part felt like a very weird statement as I typed it out).
K Record: 11-9
K Start: Zane Gonzalez at Seattle
Huge game for Gonzalez last week, and he had a big game against Seattle the first time around. Expect another double-digit effort on his part.
K Sit: Stephen Gostkowski at Baltimore
This is a PSA, if you have Gostkowski on your team get rid of him. He’s on the verge of losing his job. He’s only hit 60% of his Field Goals this season, the Titans have brought in a few Kickers to try-out, and this week the Titans will have a tough matchup with Baltimore, which means if he hasn’t lost his job by Sunday, then he’s in for a low scoring fantasy performance.
Defense Record: 15-5
Defense Start: Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas
In the five weeks since Prescott’s injury (including the week he went down) the Cowboys have allowed the opposing defense to post double-digit fantasy points. The four teams that did it you ask? That would be the Giants, Arizona, Washington and Philadelphia. As bad as Minnesota’s defense has been, even they should be able to come away as a fantasy stud this week.
Defense Sit: Los Angeles Chargers vs NY Jets
The Chargers’ defense hasn’t taken advantage of any of their plus matchups except for week 1 against the Bengals. After their bye week they got to play Jacksonville and Denver and still only mustered 9 points total between the two of them. As fruitful as it’s been most weeks when starting the defense going against the Jets, this may be one you want to avoid.
