Lance's Week 12 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, as well as 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you all have a fantastic turkey day, enjoy some time with your friends and family and get to watch some football. I will be spending tomorrow morning playing flag football with a group of friends, which means I may be spending tomorrow afternoon in the hospital...wish me luck. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Overall Record: 99-61-1
Detroit over Houston
Stafford’s career Thanksgiving stats are eh. He’s 4-5 (he didn’t play in last year's loss to Chicago, or the 2010 loss to New England). He’s averaged about 300 yards and thrown 17 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in those 9 games. However, he’s gone 4-2 in the last six Thanksgiving games he’s played with the two losses coming against the 2017 “Minneapolis Miracle” Vikings and the 2018 “throwback to the Monster’s of the Midway” Bears. The Texans are the furthest thing from those two teams and I think we’re going to see them get torched by a fiery Stafford.
Washington over Dallas
The winner of this game will walk away with the lead in the NFC East, at least until Sunday. Both of these teams looked good in wins last week, but I’m taking Washington because Dallas’ win was over Minnesota who lacks something that Washington brings in force: a pass rush. The Vikings have some decent looking young talent in that area, but Washington’s D-Line is fully prepared to wreck the injury depleted force Dallas has to roll out in front of Dalton. Oh, and Gibson, McLaurin and Smith can absolutely take advantage of the Cowboys defense.
**UPDATE** Pittsburgh over Baltimore **UPDATE**
Well if this game does push forward this week then that means Baltimore will be starting RGIII under Center. I don't like their odds of getting the win in this situation with him running the offense.
Miami over NY Jets
Last week was a huge letdown by Miami, but this week should be a nice easy bounce back as long as they don’t overlook it.
Arizona over New England
The Cardinals need a win to keep themselves in the hunt for the NFC West. New England may not be the easiest team to face in this situation, but they are beatable and Murray presents all sorts of problems for them.
Minnesota over Carolina
One BIG reason for why it’s Minnesota over Carolina for me: Dalvin Cook. He’s having a great season and the Panthers run defense is not very good. And for those of you who are like “they did a great job last week.” Congrats, they shutdown a 35 year old Running Back, and a guy who has averaged 3.6 YPC on the season.
Cleveland over Jacksonville
There isn’t anything about the Browns that tells me they should be sitting at 7-3 and currently holding down a playoff spot, but here we are. They do have two monsters in their backfield who can and will torture the Jags defense all game long.
Indianapolis over Tennessee
If the Titans had kept it close the first time around then maybe I would’ve considered them, but they didn’t. Indy’s defense struggled in the first half last week, but then they got back to the unit we’ve grown accustomed to seeing this year. It also helps that Rivers is playing very good ball right now.
NY Giants over Cincinnati
We’ve seen enough of Ryan Finley to have a pretty good idea of how this game is going to go.
Buffalo over LA Chargers
This one is more of a toss-up than most might think. Buffalo’s defense has been pretty bad and with the way Herbert and Allen are playing this could be a long day for Buffalo. But the Chargers have also been pretty terrible on defense and their team as a whole can’t seem to close out games, to put it into perspective, the Jets almost came back on them last week.
Las Vegas over Atlanta
Atlanta’s offense should return to form this week, but I love the way the Raiders have been playing this season. They aren’t ready for a Super Bowl run, but they can take care of opponents like the Falcons.
LA Rams over San Francisco
With the way the Rams are playing this one should be over quickly, especially with Mullens under Center for San Fran.
New Orleans over Denver
The Broncos are an enigma. They randomly decide to show up to take down a team they probably shouldn’t have beaten. This could be one of those weeks again, but I’m siding with Taysom Hill whose dual threat ability led the Saints offense to 24 points last week.
Kansas City over Tampa Bay
Mahomes vs Brady. Once again we’re going to see the young gunslinger takedown the old veteran.
Green Bay over Chicago
Big rivalry so anything is possible, but I’d still be shocked if the Bears pulled it off. They do have the defense to get the job done, but with the way Rodgers is playing right now and the fact that this is a big rivalry I wouldn’t bet against him.
Seattle over Philadelphia
Philly’s offense has been downright awful. Bad enough that I expect they’re going to make Seattle’s bottom ranked defense look good. Not to mention, Russ is still cooking even if he slightly burned a couple dishes along the way.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 8-14
QB Start: Philip Rivers vs Tennessee
Tennessee’s secondary is a little banged up, and they’re not doing particularly well against the pass. Rivers is hot right now, he’s thrown for 1,456 yards, 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in his last five games.
QB Sit: Andy Dalton vs Washington
If you’re in streamer mode because of injuries, or poor QB play, don’t use Dalton this week. I know he’s coming off a good performance and “it’s Thanksgiving and he plays for Dallas,” but Washington has only allowed one QB to post over 20 fantasy points on them in the last five weeks. And this is still the same Dallas team with the banged up O-Line.
RB Record: 8-14
RB Start: Antonio Gibson at Dallas
Gibson has been slowly taking over Washington’s backfield. He’s scored in four straight games, and he’s had at least 13 carries in three of those games. Washington needs Gibson to run well to open up their offense. You know who doesn’t do well against the run? Dallas. They give up 4.9 YPC and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns on the year.
RB Sit: Clyde Edwards-Helaire at Tampa Bay
It’s a tough call deciding to sit CEH, but I’m going to recommend you do it anyways. The Bucs allow the lowest YPC at 3.2 and it’s all thanks to those athletic backers they have in the middle of their defense, Lavonte David and Devin White. KC is going to have to rely on their pass game to get it done this week, which is really not a problem for them.
WR Record: 11-11
WR Start: Nelson Agholor at Atlanta
Trusting a Raiders Receiver this season has been risky, but I’m gonna say do it anyways. Atlanta’s defense is the only one in the NFL currently to have allowed over 20 touchdowns passing and 12 yards per reception. Agholor is second on the team in targets, but he’s first in yards and touchdowns, so he’s your best bet for having the big game.
WR Sit: Corey Davis at Indianapolis **UPDATE**
Well it looks like Thielen won't play, so as promised I'm updating my sit to Corey Davis. First time around he had a better game than A.J. Brown, but if the Titans want to beat Indy this time they'll need to get their star (that's Brown) more involved. Indy's defense is too good to allow both Titans Receivers to be fantasy relevant.
TE Record: 13-9
TE Start: Austin Hooper at Jacksonville
Hooper has not been a factor in fantasy land this season, but his 5 targets this past week are promising. The fact that he’s facing the Jags who have allowed 8 touchdowns to the Tight End position doesn’t hurt either.
TE Sit: Jonnu Smith at Indianapolis
Smith has hit double-digits in two of his last three games. The game he didn’t was round one against the Colts. Indy also happens to be one of three teams who have only allowed one touchdown to the Tight End position through the air (Smith ran one in against them two weeks ago and still scored under 10 points).
K Record: 11-11
K Start: Joey Slye at Minnesota
Slye has quietly had one of the better years for Kickers in fantasy football. This week the Panthers take on one of the worst defenses in the NFL, the same defense that just allowed Dallas to break 30 points for the first time since week 4. Should be a nice homecoming for Bridgewater and everyone else he’s working with.
K Sit: Robbie Gould at LA Rams **UPDATE**
Due to the uncertainty of the Ravens-Steelers game I've decided to swap out my sits for Kicker and Defense. Things are rough going for San Fran's offense and they're about to get tougher this week with the Rams defense staring them in the face. Gould won't get many opportunities in this one.
Defense Record: 15-7
Defense Start: Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia
Seattle’s defense hasn’t exactly been premiere, but this is a favorable matchup. Wentz has thrown 14 interceptions, Philly has allowed 40 sacks (most in the NFL), and they’re predicting rain which can have as much of an affect on the ball as it can on the score.
Defense Sit: New England Patriots vs Arizona **UPDATE**
The Pats had a couple good defensive outing earlier in the season and that seems to have anchored them as still relevant week to week. Problem is, they haven't hit double-digits since week 3 and they haven't scored more than five points since week 7. Arizona's offense is very talented and quite capable of posting 30 or more points at any time. Now would be the moment you drop New England and grab someone like Seattle or the Giants, if they're still available of course.
