Lance's Week 15 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Overall Record: 133-74-1

Las Vegas over LA Chargers

If you like offensive dominant games you’ll enjoy tuning in for this one. Neither of these defenses are very good and both offenses have plenty of firepower. I’m going with the Raiders because the Chargers have had problems closing out games this season.

Buffalo over Denver

Denver is a sneaky team. They play well for no reason and they have done it against top teams already this year. I’m going with Buffalo because they’ve been playing very good football lately, but watch out for Denver’s sneaky good pass defense.

Green Bay over Carolina

If CMC was back I would have seriously considered them this week, but he’s expected to miss another one, so I’m going with Green Bay. Their run defense has been pretty bad this year, but if it comes down to both teams having to throw, Rodgers has been too good for Bridgewater to keep up.

San Francisco over Dallas

San Fran’s defense is the only reason I’m taking them over Dallas.

Washington over Seattle

Seattle’s pass defense is so bad that Haskins or Smith can take advantage of it, so I’m not worried about what Washington will do on the offensive side of the ball. I believe Seattle is going to have trouble keeping Washington’s D-Line out of their backfield and that will cost them.

Minnesota over Chicago

Jefferson and Thielen are on a terror. When they played Chicago earlier in the season Jefferson posted 135 yards on 8 catches, and Thielen went for 43 yards on 4 catches with 2 touchdowns. The Vikings will need to rely on them again this week. It helps that Trubisky doesn’t play well against Minnesota, and you’ll see more on that below.

Miami over New England

Fun fact: Miami and New England have split their series in each of the last three seasons. The Pats won the first game, so now it’s Miami’s turn. The only thing that worries me is Belichick’s ability to torture rookie QBs, but Miami’s defense is too good to pass up in this situation. The Dolphins have at least one forced turnover in every game this season, and if they can get Newton off on the wrong foot early they can send him into a downward spiral.

Baltimore over Jacksonville

Baltimore should dominate this game in every facet. It really is a battle of two opposites. Really the only major stat category the Jags are doing better in is passing yards.

Tampa Bay over Atlanta

These two play each other twice in the final three weeks, what schedule maker thought that sounded like a good idea? The Bucs have less issues all the way across the board, so I’m taking them this week, and in case you’re wondering, I’ll be taking them in week 17 as well.

Tennessee over Detroit

Tannehill, Henry, Brown and Davis are going to set the Lions ablaze. Also, Stafford is expected to be out this week. And if he is unable to go the Lions will be using Chase Daniel, who has a lengthy tenure in the league, so they won’t even have the element of surprise under Center.

Indianapolis over Houston

The Colts are red hot in the points-for department. They’ve scored over 25 points in each of their last five games, and their defense is still pretty dangerous, though they haven’t been as good as they were to start the year. I like them to keep things hot as they race toward the playoffs.

Arizona over Philadelphia

The Cardinals will be able to prepare for the Eagles with a full game of tape to go off of for Hurts, unlike the Saints. Oh, and the Eagles took a beating on the back end last week, so expect to see a whole lot of Hopkins.

LA Rams over NY Jets

The Jets barely put any points on the board last week and there’s a good chance this one ends up being worse for them.

Kansas City over New Orleans

In what is almost certain to be a shootout I am absolutely going to take Patrick Mahomes over Taysom Hill. I have yet to see anything about the Saints switching to Winston this week, if they do it should make things more interesting, but I’d still take Mahomes.

Cleveland over NY Giants

The Browns have shown me that they are for real, and yes that includes how they played against Baltimore, a team that they only scored six points on in week one, they posted 42 on and rather than getting blown out, they lost by five. They’re going to take it to the Giants.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

The only way Cincinnati wins this one is if Pitt plays down to their level, which really isn’t out of the question, but I think they’ll end up coming into this game mad after having lost two straight.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 12-16

QB Start: Derek Carr vs LA Chargers

Derek Carr is very hot right now. In his last two games he’s thrown for 697 yards and 5 touchdowns. He did not play well the first time these two met, but things are different. He’s found his groove again and his Receivers have stepped up with him. Plus, last week's performance came against the Colts, who have allowed 17 pass touchdowns and accumulated 15 interceptions this year. The Chargers have allowed 26 pass touchdowns to just 9 interceptions.

QB Sit: Baker Mayfield at NY Giants

The Giants secondary is playing very well right now. They kept Wilson and Murray under 20 points in their last two games. Baker has been playing a whole lot better, but if the passing isn’t there the Browns are perfectly content to run the ball and control the clock. Don’t expect a big fantasy day out of Baker this week.

RB Record: 12-16

RB Start: D’Andre Swift at Tennessee

He returned from injury last week and should be in store for a bigger workload this week. Tennessee allows 4.3 YPC and has given up 13 touchdowns rushing. Stafford may not play this week, which means the Lions should look to their backs for the heavy lifting.

RB Sit: Clyde Edwards-Helaire at New Orleans

Prior to Miles Sanders (and Hurts) the Saints hadn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher all year. I expect them to clamp down once again and force the Chiefs into a shootout through the air.

WR Record: 12-16

WR Start: Chase Claypool at Cincinnati

Claypool hasn’t reached pay-dirt since week 11, and over the last two weeks he’s accounted for just 43 yards. That’ll change this week. Big Ben seems to have Receivers on a rotation for who is going to be his primary guy and I believe it’s time for Claypool to shift back into that spot against a Bengals team that he scored on twice back in week 10.

WR Sit: Cole Beasley at Denver

The Broncos are tough on Receivers. They haven’t given up a touchdown to a receiver since week 11 and they’ve only allowed 12 to the position all year. They even managed to keep Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas in check for the most part. Also, the last Receiver to go for 100 yards on them was Olamide Zaccheaus back in week 9. Moral of the story, don’t start Beasley this week.

TE Record: 15-13

TE Start: Robert Tonyan vs Carolina

He’s had a consistent 5 targets in four straight weeks and he’s scored in each of those games. I’m gonna go ahead and say he scores in his fifth straight week when he takes on one of the worst fantasy teams against Tight Ends. Carolina ranks top ten in points given up to the position and they’ve allowed either a touchdown or 50 plus yards (or both) to the position in their last eight games.

TE Sit: Dallas Goedert at Arizona

Ertz’s return did not affect Goedert all that much, but Hurts starting has. His lone touchdown in his start last week went to a Receiver (Jeffery), just like his lone touchdown when he came in the week prior went to a Receiver (Ward). Couple that with Arizona allowing only one Tight End to go for over 50 yards and just three touchdowns to the position all year and you can see why Goedert is a sit.

K Record: 15-13

K Start: Younghoe Koo vs Tampa Bay

Koo is having a fantastic season, Atlanta’s offense is still very good and Tampa Bay would’ve allowed double-digit points to Dan Bailey last week had he made his kicks. It’s a favorable matchup for a high scoring game that includes plenty of Field Goal opportunities on both sides.

K Sit: Matt Prater at Tennessee

I believe I listed Prater here last week as well, and I’m going to do it again because of the Stafford situation. There may not be many chances for Prater to score this week if Stafford can’t go.

Defense Record: 19-9

Defense Start: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago

The Bears ran over the Texans, but Houston also ranks bottom ten in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed, and bottom five in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. Minnesota’s defense isn’t the best either, but I would still expect Chicago to come back down to Earth. Especially since Trubisky has had five career starts against the Vikings, averaged 168 yards passing, and had just 2 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in those games.

Defense Sit: Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans

The Chiefs defense had a really nice outing against Miami, but in the four weeks prior to that they had allowed an average of 25.5 points, had just three sacks, and a nice total of five interceptions. The Saints have thrown just five picks all year, they still have one of the better O-Lines in the league that’s allowed 26 sacks this season, and they’ve average 27.8 PPG. With this game almost certainly headed for the high scoring marks, it’s safe to say you need to bench both of these defenses.