Lance's Week 16 Predictions

Merry Christmas everyone!

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Overall Record: 143-80-1

New Orleans over Minnesota

This is not going to be the same matchup that we’ve had the pleasure of watching in two of the last three playoffs. Those games featured a beefed up Minnesota defense, this one features a poor shadow of that. The Saints may not have the defense to shutdown Minnesota’s offense, but they should be able to finish the game with more stops.

Tampa Bay over Detroit

Detroit has too many holes and is dealing with too many injuries to be able to slow down the Evans/Godwin/Brown trio. If Brady can get going early, this one will be over quickly.

Arizona over San Francisco

Murray really got it going last week and I think that carries over to this one, maybe not at the 400-yard mark that he eclipsed against Philly, but enough to take home a fairly easy win.

Miami over Las Vegas

Miami’s defense is doing too well for me to think that the Raiders offense can get it done, especially when they’re own defense is ranked toward the bottom of most of the major statistical categories. Miami winning would officially eliminate Vegas from the playoff race.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh

Pitt hit this downward spiral at the exact wrong time as their last two games could very well send them into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak. Indy is playing similar to how they were earlier in the season, except now their offense has really come to life.

Kansas City over Atlanta

This is KC’s top 5 pass offense against Atlanta’s bottom 5 pass defense, should be a blowout.

Chicago over Jacksonville

The Jags are playing to earn the #1 pick, and Chicago is trying to fight for the last playoff seed in the NFC. It’s always nice when goals align.

Houston over Cincinnati

Cincy did pull off a big win against a divisional foe, but I wouldn’t count on that carrying over to this week. Houston’s offense will get the better of them, and Ryan Finley (or whoever Cincy runs with) won’t be able to keep up with Watson.

Baltimore over NY Giants

The Ravens seem to be clicking again. And while the Giants are a feisty team to watch out for, I believe Baltimore will wear them out with their plethora of ball carriers.

Cleveland over NY Jets

The Jets won last week! And after the backlash from their fans, they won’t willingly let that happen again. Cleveland has the backfield to run over the Jets and Mayfield and the Receivers are playing well enough to get the job done if the Jets commit to shutting down Chubb and Hunt.

Washington over Carolina

If Antonio Gibson is healthy there should be little doubt that Washington wins this one. If not I think this will end up being a low scoring, hard fought game, and for that I still give the edge to Washington thanks to their formidable defense.

LA Chargers over Denver

Actually pretty difficult to choose. When they played earlier in the year the Broncos won a nail biter and Herbert threw two picks. Denver could still force LA into a poor situation, but the Chargers have been doing a better job of closing out games lately and Ekeler is healthy for this matchup.

Philadelphia over Dallas

This is the last key to Washington securing the NFC East this weekend. If they win, Baltimore beats the Giants, and Philly knocks off Dallas then the East belongs to Washington. Hurts has Philly’s offense surging, so in a game that I expect to be all offense, my money is on Hurts out-dueling Dalton.

LA Rams over Seattle

I have to believe that the Rams lost to the Jets because they were looking ahead to this matchup (one that could very well determine the winner of the NFC West). The Rams defense demoralized Seattle’s offense the first time around, holding them to 16 points, and forcing Wilson into a 0-2 TD to INT ratio. That’s what I think we’ll see again this week. Maybe not the no touchdown and two pick game for Wilson, but the part about the Rams defense leading the charge.

Tennessee over Green Bay

Derrick Henry. He is the reason I’m taking Tennessee. When Green Bay lost to the Bucs, Ronald Jones went for over 100 yards with 2 touchdowns. And when they lost to Minnesota, Dalvin Cook went for over 160 yards with 3 touchdowns. Tennessee’s secondary is a major weakness that Rodgers can take advantage of, but if the Titans control the clock with Henry, they’ll leave this one with a win.

New England over Buffalo

Buffalo ended their long streak of not winning the AFC East on the same weekend that New England ended their long streak of making the playoffs. So, this should be a nice poetic baton handoff right? I don’t think we’re going to see that. Belichick will use every trick up his sleeve to show Buffalo that the Patriots are not going quietly into the background.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 12-18

QB Start: Jalen Hurts at Dallas

The Cowboys defense is bad against the pass and the run. Hurts does both things well, so I expect we’ll see him continue his ascendance after his monster game against the Cards.

QB Sit: Russell Wilson vs LA Rams

Wilson hasn’t been all that good lately. He’s hit 20 or more points in fantasy just twice in his last six games and one of those games was against the Jets. The first time he played the Rams he barely managed to get over 10 points, and the Rams pass defense is still formidable (like I said above I believe their malfunction against the Jets was due to them looking ahead).

RB Record: 14-16

RB Start: J.K. Dobbins vs NY Giants

Dobbins has scored in four straight games and I believe that streak will continue. The Giants pass defense has been pretty solid this season, so look for the Ravens to keep it on the ground (and that does include Jackson). The Giants have allowed a double-digit fantasy performance from the RB position in 11 out of their 14 games this season.

RB Sit: D’Andre Swift vs Tampa Bay

He was a start last week and he did a marvelous job scoring twice and eclipsing 20 points, but things are different this week. This week he’ll have to take on the Bucs who have only allowed 9 rushing touchdowns this season and they have kept RBs to single digits in 4 of their last 5 games (Dalvin Cook was the 1 they didn’t).

WR Record: 12-18

WR Start: Amari Cooper vs Philadelphia

Philly got torched through the air in week 15 and that had a lot to do with their secondary being banged up. I expect that to carry over to this week in a very important NFC East showdown that should include two offenses trying to out-score each other. Cooper is my primary bet on being the biggest beneficiary out of Dallas’ pass catchers.

WR Sit: Nelson Agholor vs Miami

Miami has given up a decent amount of yards through the air, but they’ve only allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season. With Mariota under Center things could be even tougher on the Vegas Receivers, so if you were banking on Agholor I’d look elsewhere this week.

TE Record: 17-13

TE Start: Logan Thomas vs Carolina

As I mentioned last week, Carolina does not do a good job of covering Tight Ends. Thomas is coming off a 15 target game (in which he caught 13 for over 100 yards) and could post even bigger numbers in this one.

TE Sit: Tyler Higbee at Seattle

Seattle was the team that Thomas torched a week ago, but that was largely out of necessity as Washington doesn’t have many options in the pass game. For the most part Seattle has been solid against Tight Ends and the Rams have other players they can get the ball to if Higbee is shutdown.

K Record: 17-13

K Start: Ka’imi Fairbairn vs Cincinnati

There are a couple reasons why I believe Cincy utterly destroyed Pitt on Monday night, but don’t expect that to happen again this week. Houston will show them exactly where they belong while they load up the scoreboard.

K Sit: Daniel Carlson vs Miami

Vegas is an offense that is struggling and banged up, Miami is a defense that is still beating teams down and forcing turnovers. Forced turnovers means less opportunities for the opposing Kickers, a la drop Carlson and snag someone else for this week.

Defense Record: 20-10

Defense Start: Chicago Bears at Jacksonville

The Bears defense from a fantasy perspective has been very up and down. One week they obliterate the competition and the next they’re barely managing to stay above zero. Luckily they have the Jags this week which is a perfect spot to hit double-digits.

Defense Sit: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis

They were the best defense in fantasy for the regular season, but after three bad performances in a row and a date with Indy it may be time to cut your losses and find someone else to fill in for you on Championship weekend.