Lance's Week 5 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position.
I did much better on my weekly picks for week 4. Below you will find my week 5 picks. I didn’t get this out in time for Thursday night and I had picked Chicago, so it’s too bad I didn’t. I want to give you all a heads up that I’m doing my week 6 picks as soon as I finish posting this (I’ll have Bryar put it up next week). I will be in Maine for the week leading up to week 6, so I wanted to make sure that my article was still posted prior to the Thursday night game. That piece of information is so you understand why something may seem ridiculous with my predictions for week 6 after whatever may happen this Sunday. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Overall Record: 37-25-1
Atlanta over Carolina
The Falcons have had a string of bad luck, but it ends here. Carolina has been playing better, they just don’t have the firepower to keep up with Atlanta’s offense, and they don’t have the defense to keep Ryan, Jones and Ridley (provided the latter two play) in check.
Baltimore over Cincinnati
The turn around for Cincy may look like it’s moving slowly in the wins column, but Burrow’s play by itself has been far better than anything they experienced last season. There’s hope. However, Baltimore is going to welcome the rookie into the NFL, the hope won’t be lost, but I could see this being Burrow’s first bad game of the season.
Jacksonville over Houston
In case you forgot, it was a four turnover game that Minshew had against Houston in 2019 that resulted in him losing the starting job temporarily. I doubt Minshew has forgotten, and I believe we’re going to see a big revenge game.
Kansas City over Las Vegas
The Raiders looked like they could be for real after the first two weeks, and then they looked like the Raiders of old over the last two weeks. The Chiefs will make quick work of them.
New England over Denver
Even if Newton still isn’t able to go, the Patriots still have Belichick who somehow just gets the job done defensively even when a chunk of starters leave in free agency or opt out for the season.
Arizona over NY Jets
If Denver can manhandle the Jets with an undrafted second year player in his first start, then I don’t see a way for the Jets to keep from going 0-16. Say it with me Jets fans “T-R-E-V, Trev, Trev, Trev!!!” (Sorry Darnold, it’s really not your fault).
Pittsburgh over Philadelphia
Things do not get any easier for Philly do they? They pulled off a big one against a banged up Niners team, but Pitt’s coming off a week of rest and stacked defensively. Wentz is going to get eaten alive.
Buffalo over Tennessee
I was going to take Tennessee, but with the number of days they’ve had to miss on the practice field and the number of days that will have passed since their last game, I’m expecting to see some rust. I don’t see them being in peak performance mode, so Buffalo takes care of business again.
LA Rams over Washington
You think Washington is regretting not firing Jay Gruden and keeping Sean McVay on as the Head Coach back at the end of 2016? If not, they should be. The differences in these two teams are pretty large, I wouldn’t expect to see the Football Team hanging around at all.
Miami over San Francisco
I am not overreacting to San Francisco’s loss to Philly. I am merely acknowledging that they are not playing well right now and Miami has really stepped up their game. Though, to be fair, I could totally see this as the week where Fitzpatrick implodes and the Dolphins decide to roll out Tua for next week.
Indianapolis over Cleveland
I gotta hand it to Stefanski for getting the Browns out to a 3-1 start. With that said, Indy is the better all-around team. They’ll beat up Mayfield, which will lead to mistakes, and they’ll move the ball well enough on offense to score points.
Dallas over NY Giants
I think the Giants will have their best offensive game in this one, and Dallas could very well go for 50+ against this terrible Giants defense, which would be far too many points for the Giants to try and match.
Seattle over Minnesota
As much as I’d like to see my Vikings pull this one out, I just can’t pick against Wilson right now, especially not when Minnesota’s secondary is playing so poorly. Wilson, Carson, Lockett, Metcalf, Olsen, Cousins, Cook, Thielen and Jefferson should all be in your starting lineups, maybe even Rudolph too if you need a fill-in.
New Orleans over LA Chargers
The Saints can hope that Michael Thomas will be back for this game and if he is I wouldn’t have any qualms about choosing New Orleans. Dennis Allen is the reason why I’m picking them right now (while not knowing if Thomas will play). I see him unleashing a variety of exotic packages to confuse and fluster LA’s young QB.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 3-5
QB Start: Kirk Cousins at Seattle
The Quarterback and top Receivers that are going against Seattle this year should remain in your lineup until further notice (there are a few exceptions based on who your normal starters are). Russell Wilson has the Seahawks rolling, and Seattle’s defense is terrible, so opposing teams will need to throw the ball to keep pace and they shouldn’t have any problems doing so.
QB Sit: Carson Wentz at Pittsburgh
My original sit for the week was Brady, but I didn’t get this out in time. Because of that I’m going to double-down on Wentz. He ran in a touchdown last week against the Niners which salvaged an otherwise poor performance from a fantasy perspective. The Steelers have the most lethal pass rush in the NFL so far (averaging 5 a game). Wentz will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly and efficiently and that’s just not something he specializes in. He’s in for a long day.
RB Record: 3-5
RB Start: Chase Edmonds at NY Jets
Kenyan Drake’s Achilles heel while in college were the injuries he would suffer. He was never the primary ball carrier there because of them and I believe it’s a big reason why Miami was so willing to part with him last season. He suffered what appears to be a minor injury in week 4, but he also hasn’t looked good at all so far. I’d roll with Edmonds this week; it’s an easy matchup and he could see an uptick due to Drake’s play and the risk of further injury.
RB Sit: Joe Mixon at Baltimore
Don’t chase the points. Mixon had his first big game of the season. But Baltimore’s defense is in an entirely different league than Jacksonville’s.
WR Record: 4-4
WR Start: Robby Anderson at Atlanta
He has two hundred-yard games (and came 1 yard away from a third last week) to open this season. He also leads Carolina in targets. He should have a big game against Atlanta’s soft secondary.
WR Sit: Odell Beckham Jr. vs Indianapolis
Another candidate for DON’T CHASE THE POINTS. Maybe last week was Beckham finally showing he’s ready to go back to how he was when he first entered the league. Maybe it wasn’t. I wouldn’t risk starting him in this tough matchup against the Colts.
TE Record: 6-2
TE Start: Evan Engram at Dallas
He has not gotten off to the start that all the offseason hype would have suggested, but this is a great matchup for him and he’s coming off a 10-target game (he led the team).
TE Sit: Mike Gesicki at San Francisco
For all the injuries San Fran has suffered they are still shutting down Tight Ends. Gesicki is an athletic freak and Miami does like to deploy him out of the Slot, but if you have other options, I’d opt for them this week.
K Record: 4-4
K Start: Joey Slye at Atlanta
Atlanta’s defense couldn’t stop a peewee football team at this point. But Carolina’s offense also isn’t a lock to score every time they get within Field Goal range. They should find themselves in Field Goal range quite a bit in this one and I think we’ll see a decent mix of touchdowns and Field Goals, so grab Slye if you have Prater or Crosby (both on bye this week).
K Sit: Greg Zuerlein vs NY Giants
For week 5, Greg the Leg is the Kicker I’d expect to have plenty of extra point opportunities, but not many Field Goals.
Defense Record: 5-3
Defense Start: Arizona Cardinals at NY Jets
When it comes to defenses and my Starts and Sits, I’m usually looking for a team that will be available on the waiver wire that has a favorable matchup. That’s why it seems like I’m picking on the Jets (and Broncos) because I am. Right now, their offenses are not playing well. The Cards should be available to grab, so if you’re streaming or in need cause of a bye week, this should be your #1 target.
Defense Sit: Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants
That’s right two Dallas sits. The Cowboys are another defense that fantasy coaches may view as a streaming option this week, but they’re really not. The Giants offense isn’t great, but they have playmakers in the pass game that can take full advantage of Dallas’ miserable secondary.
