Lance's Week 9 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Overall Record: 71-47-1
Washington over NY Giants
The Giants got the better of them during the first game, but I see the door swinging the other way this time. Allen is playing better, Gibson was stepping up before their bye week, and McLaurin has started to look like he did in his rookie year, plus their defense is a monster when it’s on.
Tennessee over Chicago
Chicago has been shown for what they really are, a middle of the pack team that’s weighted down by their offensive deficiencies. Tennessee may not be Super Bowl ready, but they’re a lot more talented than Chicago.
Minnesota over Detroit
The Vikings had a tremendous outing against the Packers a week ago and I think they carry that over into this matchup. Golladay’s out, Stafford is on the COVID-reserve list (but could still play Sunday) and Detroit’s offense has been hit and miss even with them on the field this season, which means they’ll struggle to take advantage of Minnesota’s biggest weakness.
Kansas City over Carolina
As impressed as I’ve been with what Carolina has been able to do this season, and without CMC to top it off, they aren’t ready to compete with a team like Kansas City.
Houston over Jacksonville
Houston had basically no problem with the Jags the first time around and now they’ll get to take them on with no Gardner Minshew. Watson and company take care of business and Houston’s defense should be able to man handle a Jake Luton led offense.
Indianapolis over Baltimore
This is a tough one to make a call on. I chose the Colts because they’ve been on a roll since their terrible showing against the Browns and that awful first quarter and a half against the Bengals. The Ravens, on the other hand, have looked flat. It was a near comeback against the Steelers, sort of, and a win over the Eagles two weeks before that almost ended up being a loss. They’ve gotta figure out which gear isn’t spinning and get it back in working order.
Seattle over Buffalo
Wilson, Metcalf and Lockett just keep getting the job done. Meanwhile, the Bills have had a couple of ugly wins against teams they probably should’ve handled with ease (the Jets and Pats) and struggled against the two good teams they played prior to that (the Titans and Chiefs).
Atlanta over Denver
Another one that was difficult to call. The Falcons have won two of their last three and seem to be functioning better now that Dan Quinn is gone. The Broncos have also won two of their last three after Drew Lock returned from his injury and last week he played his best game of the season. I think this game will have some fireworks, and I’m taking the seasoned vet (Matt Ryan) to come away with the win.
Las Vegas over LA Chargers
The Chargers are 1-5 with Herbert under center. The one win was against the Jags. The five losses all came by seven points or less. He’s played well, but closing out the games has not been his strong suit. The Raiders are playing at a higher level this season, and though they're still beatable, I’m taking them to get the win.
Pittsburgh over Dallas
It’s the only undefeated team taking on a skeleton of a bottom-dwelling team, that’s about as far as I need to go.
Arizona over Miami
This should be an interesting game. The Dolphins defense played incredibly last week, but they can’t rely on that every week, they’re going to need the offense to follow suit. Tua and company are going to find it difficult trying to play keep up with Kyler Murray.
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
We’re being treated to some good matchups this week. The Saints are dealing with their own set of injuries at key positions and the Bucs are gathering more weapons at an insanely high rate. Considering the path that Brady, Gronk and Evans are running up, and the path the Saints defense has been sliding down, this game could end up being one sided.
New England over NY Jets
The Patriots have been awful lately, but I don’t think they’re even bad enough to lose to the Jets. The only way I see New England losing is if Newton turns the ball over a bunch, but I think Belichick will require the offense to keep the ball on the ground and that’s something that can easily be done against this Jets defense.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 5-11
QB Start: Drew Lock at Atlanta
Atlanta’s defense has been terrible this season, that’s no secret. They played well against the Panthers last week, but outside of that they’ve given up over 300 yards a game (that includes Trubisky and Foles combining for over 300 back in week 3). They’ve also given up 3+ touchdowns passes in half of their games. Lock had a big week against the Chargers that gave the Broncos their third win of the season. If they want to get it done again this week they’ll need him to copy that performance.
QB Sit: Drew Brees at Tampa Bay
While the Saints did get the win over the Bucs in week 1, it was also Brees’ worst fantasy performance of the season. Since then the Saints have dealt with injuries at Receiver and the Bucs defense has gotten even better.
RB Record: 6-10
RB Start: Damien Harris at NY Jets
The Jets defense is awful, so the Patriots should be able to move the ball through the air and on the ground. But given the way the Patriots are currently playing through the air, it would behoove them to keep the ball on the ground and avoid an embarrassing loss. Harris has shown he’s the best back they have when it comes to straight running the ball.
RB Sit: Devonta Freeman/Wayne Gallman at Washington
Freeman may be back, but there’s no guarantee the backfield will be 100% his this week. Washington does a good job shutting down Runningbacks. They’ve only allowed one 100-yard rusher (Nick Chubb).
WR Record: 10-6
WR Start: Diontae Johnson at Dallas
When healthy he’s been Big Ben’s top target and Dallas’ defense is easily beatable. If he’s healthy get him in your lineup. If he’s not healthy, then Chase Claypool becomes my start in his place.
WR Sit: Corey Davis vs Chicago
Say it with me, DON’T CHASE THE POINTS!! He’s gone for double-digits in back to back games, but the Bears secondary has been very good against Receivers (not as much against Tight Ends). Look for Tannehill to go after Jonnu Smith, and when he needs to go outside I think it will be predominantly towards ol’ reliable, A.J. Brown.
TE Record: 10-6
TE Start: Hayden Hurst vs Denver
On the outside it may not seem like a great matchup because the Broncos haven’t allowed a Tight End to score since week 1 and they haven’t allowed a Tight End to go for over 40 yards since week 3. But Hurst has had three good games in a row and that’s largely due to Ridley and/or Jones being hobbled. Ridley is still dealing with a foot injury, so I expect Hurst’s target share to stay around the seven mark he’s hit in his last two games.
TE Sit: Logan Thomas vs NY Giants
He had touchdowns in back to back games prior to their bye week, but he’s also only had four targets in the last four games he’s played. It’s difficult to trust a pass catcher who isn’t seeing a decent target load.
K Record: 7-9
K Start: Nick Folk at NY Jets
The Jets defense is bad enough for the Patriots to move the ball easily. The Pats offense has performed poorly enough as of late that there should be Field Goal opportunities for Folk.
K Sit: Joey Slye at Kansas City
The Chiefs defense has really stepped up as of late and considering how high-powered the Chiefs offense is, Carolina could find themselves in a non-kicking situation early on.
Defense Record: 11-5
Defense Start: Houston Texans at Jacksonville
Obviously the Patriots should be your top target for streaming purposes this week, but if they’re already gone I’d target Houston. The Jags are looking at starting the rookie, Jake Luton. Could provide plenty of opportunities for the Texans defense to put up points in fantasy.
Defense Sit: Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas
Even in their more favorable fantasy matchups this season the Chargers defense hasn’t really performed all that well. The Raiders wouldn’t exactly be described as favorable either, they’ve only had one week so far this season where they allowed a fantasy defense to have a dominant performance.
