Look back: My 2021 Draft Boards
Last year I posted this article but for my 2020 draft boards. I think they balanced out pretty well in comparison to my 2021 boards, but the NFL category did a much better job with the 2021 draft and separated from my numbers. I'll explain the tables below in case you didn't see last year's article. At the very bottom you will see my brief analysis on how this project is looking after two seasons, and a link to all the previous draft board articles.
The comparison table will have four column headers: 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 are in reference to the my three versions of draft boards with 1.0 being the original; and the last column will be NFL which is the NFL's comparison to each category you see on the left side. All of the percentages are the percent of successful players for each category.
Categories: Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 is my way of organizing with the 3.0 version of the draft boards, for 1.0 and 2.0 I've converted 1st round to day 1, 1st/2nd and 2nd/3rd to day 2, and 3rd/5th, 4th/6th, 5th/7th and 7th/UD to day 3.
"On my Board and Successful": looks at the percent of the successful players that were still on my board, and for the NFL the # of successful compared to total drafted.
"Total of Successful and on my board" is the percent of successful on my board vs the total number of successful players, for the NFL it's the percent of successful that were drafted vs the total number of successful players.
"Removed/Undrafted" is the percent of players not on my board that succeeded, for the NFL that's the number of successful undrafted players compared to the number of combine players (non-special teams) that went undrafted (because comparing it to the number of undrafted players would be insane).
Comparing Draft Boards
| Categories | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | NFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 41.7 | 66.7 | 53.9 | 59.4 |
| Day 2 | 31.7 | 35.9 | 20.0 | 27.0 |
| Day 3 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 6.5 |
| On my Board and successful | 19.1 | 23.8 | 21.5 | 18.8 |
| Total of successful and on my board | 91.8 | 79.6 | 91.8 | 100.0 |
| Removed/Undrafted | 4.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
The Columns for the player board below include the 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and NFL like above, and below them is the draft round grade each successful player had on those boards (or the round they were actually drafted in for the NFL column). The final column is the grade they've received based on their play through the first three seasons, with only those getting at least a C qualifying as successful.
UD = Undrafted
Successful Players
| Players | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | NFL | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3rd-5th | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | 4th | A |
| OT Christian Darrisaw | 4th-6th | 1st | Day 1 | 1st | A |
| C Creed Humphrey | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 2nd | A |
| C Drew Dalman | 1st | UD | Day 1 | 4th | A |
| WR Ja'Marr Chase | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 1st | A |
| CB Jaycee Horn | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | 1st | A |
| Edge Micah Parsons | 1st-2nd | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | 1st | A |
| CB Patrick Surtain II | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | 1st | A |
| OT Penei Sewell | 3rd-5th | 1st-2nd | Day 2 | 1st | A |
| DL Christian Barmore | 5th-7th | 3rd-5th | Day 1 | 2nd | B |
| S Darrick Forrest | 1st-2nd | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | 5th | B |
| WR Devonta Smith | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 1st | B |
| WR Jaylen Waddle | 5th-7th | 4th-6th | Day 3 | 1st | B |
| LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 3 | 2nd | B |
| RB Najee Harris | 2nd-3rd | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | 1st | B |
| OG Quinn Meinerz | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 3rd | B |
| OT Rashawn Slater | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 1st | B |
| OG Samuel Cosmi | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 2nd | B |
| S Talanoa Hufanga | 3rd-5th | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | 5th | B |
| RB Travis Etienne | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 1 | 1st | B |
| OG Alijah Vera-Tucker | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| DL Alim McNeill | 5th-7th | UD | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| S Andre Cisco | 2nd-3rd | 1st-2nd | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| CB Asante Samuel Jr. | 3rd-5th | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| CB Brandon Stephens | 3rd-5th | UD | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| S Camryn Bynum | 3rd-5th | UD | Day 1 | 4th | C |
| CB Elijah Molden | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | 3rd | C |
| LB Ernest Jones | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| CB Greg Newsome II | 1st-2nd | 1st-2nd | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| Edge Gregory Rousseau | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| Edge Jaelan Phillips | 1st | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | 1st | C |
| LB Jamin Davis | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 1st | C |
| S Jevon Holland | 1st-2nd | 2nd-3rd | Day 1 | 2nd | C |
| Edge Jonathon Cooper | UD | UD | UD | 7th | C |
| RB Kenneth Gainwell | 2nd-3rd | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | 5th | C |
| Edge Kwity Paye | 3rd-5th | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | 1st | C |
| TE Kyle Pitts | 1st | 1st | Day 1 | 1st | C |
| OG Landon Dickerson | 4th-6th | 1st | Day 1 | 2nd | C |
| CB Michael Carter II | UD | UD | UD | 5th | C |
| LB Nick Bolton | 4th-6th | UD | UD | 2nd | C |
| WR Nico Collins | 4th-6th | 4th-6th | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| Edge Odafe Oweh | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 3 | 1st | C |
| DL Osa Odighizuwa | 3rd-5th | UD | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| TE Pat Freiermuth | 2nd-3rd | 1st | Day 1 | 2nd | C |
| CB Paulson Adebo | 3rd-5th | 3rd-5th | Day 1 | 3rd | C |
| LB Pete Werner | 2nd-3rd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| RB Rhamondre Stevenson | UD | UD | Day 3 | 4th | C |
| OG Tyler Smith | 2nd-3rd | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | 6th | C |
| CB Tyson Campbell | UD | UD | UD | 2nd | C |
My takeaway: I will always be grateful for version 1 because it got me started with this. However, I am very happy I continued to adjust my system. Version 2 was way ahead in the Day 1 and Day 2 categories, but that was due to the sheer volume of players removed from my board in that category. That's also why you see a significant decrease in the 'Total Successful and on my Board' category, and an increase in the 'removed/undrafted' category. Version 3 is a nice balance between them. With the 2020 boards, version 3 was right there with the NFL numbers, but again, the NFL separated from the pack with this 2021 look. I expect I'll see that on occasion going forward, a fluctuation up and down because it's difficult to nail your evaluations every year.
Player Note: I know there are plenty of players that are missing that have you scratching your head. Two things to keep in mind. First, this is a look after year 3, not every great player finds success right away in their careers, which is why I'll take another look after year 6 and a last look after year 10. Second, if a player just exploded onto the scene this past season, chances are years 1 and/or 2 dragged down their grade. If they keep it up, they'll have a grade by year 6. Three, there was a minimum requirement for each position (for most it was a minimum snap count, for QBs it was a minimum number of games started), so if a player spent more time on the sidelines than on the field, they didn't receive a passing grade regardless. Four, this is based on my grading system, not my opinions. There are plenty of players I really like that didn't make the list, and a few that did make it that made me double-check the formulas. And lastly, the positions next to each player is based on which position they played the most through their first three years.
Link to all the previous 2020 draft board articles: https://wetalkfootball.cc/tag/2021-draft-board/
