Look back: My 2022 Draft Boards
In case you're curious about the look at my past seasons: 2020 Boards and 2021 Boards
Explaining each of the tables you'll see below:
The Comparison table: Has 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 in reference to my three versions of draft boards with 1.0 being the original. The last column will be NFL which is the NFL's comparison to each category you see on the left side. All of the percentages are the percent of successful players for each category.
Categories: Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 is my way of organizing with the 2.0 and 3.0 version of the draft boards, for 1.0 I've converted 1st round to day 1, 1st/2nd and 2nd/3rd to day 2, and 3rd/5th, 4th/6th, 5th/7th and 7th/UD to day 3.
"On my Board and Successful" looks at the percent of the successful players that were still on my board, and for the NFL the # of successful compared to total drafted. This year showed the disadvantage the NFL has in this category as all 52 successful players were drafted, but since there were 262 picks made, their percentage is lower than mine. Just something to keep in mind.
"Total of Successful and on my board" is the percent of successful on my board vs the total number of successful players, for the NFL it's the percent of successful that were drafted vs the total number of successful players.
"Removed/Undrafted" is the percent of players not on my board that succeeded, for the NFL that's the number of successful undrafted players compared to the number of combine players (non-special teams) that went undrafted (because comparing it to the number of undrafted players would be insane).
Comparing Draft Boards
| Categories | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | NFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 22.2 | 36.4 | 50.0 | 53.1 |
| Day 2 | 28.3 | 25.5 | 29.3 | 28.8 |
| Day 3 | 16.4 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| On my Board and successful | 20.1 | 19.1 | 20.7 | 19.8 |
| Total of successful and on my board | 71.2 | 78.8 | 82.7 | 100.0 |
| Removed/Undrafted | 11.5 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 |
The Columns for the player board below include the 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and NFL like above, and below them is the draft round grade each successful player had on those boards (or the round they were actually drafted in for the NFL column). The final column is the grade they've received based on their play through the first three seasons, with only those getting at least a C qualifying as successful.
UD = Undrafted
Successful Players
| Players | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | NFL | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT Zach Tom | 1st | Day 1 | Day 1 | 4th | A |
| C Tyler Linderbaum | 1st-2nd | Day 2 | Day 1 | 1st | A |
| CB Sauce Gardner | 4th-6th | Day 3 | Day 1 | 1st | A |
| CB Derek Stingley Jr. | UD | Day 3 | Day 2 | 1st | A |
| S Kerby Joseph | UD | UD | Day 2 | 3rd | A |
| CB Tariq Woolen | UD | UD | Day 3 | 5th | A |
| QB Brock Purdy | UD | Day 3 | UD | 7th | A |
| RB Breece Hall | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | Day 1 | 2nd | B |
| OT Bernhard Raimann | UD | Day 1 | Day 1 | 3rd | B |
| Edge Aidan Hutchinson | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | Day 1 | 1st | B |
| RB Kenneth Walker III | 2nd-3rd | Day 1 | Day 2 | 2nd | B |
| OG Tyler Smith | 3rd-5th | Day 1 | Day 2 | 1st | B |
| LB Devin Lloyd | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | Day 2 | 1st | B |
| CB Martin Emerson | 4th-6th | Day 3 | Day 2 | 3rd | B |
| S Kyle Hamilton | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 2 | 1st | B |
| RB James Cook | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 3 | 2nd | B |
| RB Kyren Williams | UD | UD | UD | 5th | B |
| TE Isaiah Likely | UD | UD | UD | 4th | B |
| LB Quay Walker | UD | UD | UD | 1st | B |
| WR Garrett Wilson | 2nd-3rd | Day 1 | Day 1 | 1st | C |
| TE Trey McBride | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | Day 1 | 2nd | C |
| Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux | 3rd-5th | Day 1 | Day 1 | 1st | C |
| Edge Nik Bonitto | 4th-6th | Day 2 | Day 1 | 2nd | C |
| SCB Roger McCreary | 4th-6th | UD | Day 1 | 2nd | C |
| RB Rachaad White | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 2 | 3rd | C |
| OT Charles Cross | 1st | Day 1 | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| OT Ikem Ekwonu | 1st-2nd | Day 1 | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| C Cam Jurgens | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| Edge Boye Mafe | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| Edge George Karlaftis | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| NT Travis Jones | UD | UD | Day 2 | 3rd | C |
| LB Terrel Bernard | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | Day 2 | 3rd | C |
| CB Trent McDuffie | 4th-6th | Day 3 | Day 2 | 1st | C |
| CB Zyon McCollum | 2nd-3rd | Day 1 | Day 2 | 5th | C |
| SCB Kyler Gordon | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| S Dane Belton | 2nd-3rd | Day 2 | Day 2 | 4th | C |
| S Jalen Pitre | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| S Jaquan Brisker | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | Day 2 | 2nd | C |
| S Quentin Lake | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | Day 2 | 6th | C |
| WR Drake London | UD | Day 2 | Day 3 | 1st | C |
| OT Braxton Jones | 2nd-3rd | Day 3 | Day 3 | 5th | C |
| Edge Travon Walker | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | Day 3 | 1st | C |
| DL Devonte Wyatt | 2nd-3rd | Day 3 | Day 3 | 1st | C |
| CB Alontae Taylor | 1st-2nd | Day 2 | Day 3 | 2nd | C |
| CB Jack Jones | 3rd-5th | Day 2 | Day 3 | 4th | C |
| CB Jaylen Watson | 2nd-3rd | Day 3 | Day 3 | 7th | C |
| S Nick Cross | 3rd-5th | Day 3 | Day 3 | 3rd | C |
| RB Brian Robinson Jr. | UD | UD | UD | 3rd | C |
| WR George Pickens | UD | Day 3 | UD | 2nd | C |
| TE Cade Otton | UD | UD | UD | 4th | C |
| TE Jake Ferguson | UD | UD | UD | 4th | C |
| CB Cobie Durant | UD | UD | UD | 4th | C |
My takeaway: Version 3 is still the runaway winner from my draft boards. When I do this for the 2023 class next season you'll only see versions 2 and 3 because that was the year I did away with version 1, and then the 2024 class will only be version 3. This makes me feel better about the changes I've made, and the aspect that pretty soon it will only be the one version compared to the NFL. Still, there are some kinks to workout to get better results. For instance, between 2021 and 2022 the Total Successful and on my board went down, while the Removed/Undrafted went up. I've already made a couple changes for the upcoming draft, spoiler alert I suppose, I've created a Slot WR and Slot CB category in the hopes that I can lessen the dilution in those waters by separating out players that fit better in the Slot role. Last comment, I'm happy that the Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 categories for my version 3 were still pretty well on-par with the NFL categories.
Player Note: I'm sure there are players that are missing that have you scratching your head. Two things to keep in mind. First, this is a look after year 3, not every great player finds success right away in their careers, which is why I'll take another look after year 6 and a last look after year 10. Second, if a player just exploded onto the scene this past season, chances are years 1 and/or 2 dragged down their grade. If they keep it up, they'll have a grade by year 6. Third, there was a minimum requirement for each position (for most it was a minimum snap count, for QBs it was a minimum number of pass attempts), so if a player spent more time on the sidelines than on the field, they didn't receive a passing grade regardless. Fourth, this is based on my grading system, not my opinions. There are plenty of players I really like that didn't make the list, and a few that did make it that made me double-check the formulas. And last note, the positions next to each player is based on which position they played the most through their first three years.
