Predicting the Coach Hirings

As of me writing this there are five head coach openings, and I'm going to try and predict who goes where. I know there's been buzz about a team making a big trade with Minnesota to land O'Connell, but after what he's done since going to Minnesota, I would be shocked to see them trade him away, so you won't see it below. In case you haven't seen this referenced, there's been a pretty strong trend over the last decade where teams go the opposite direction from where their previous head coach stemmed from. Meaning, if the guy they fired was from the offensive side of the ball, then they go with a defensive guy, or if the previous guy was in his first stint as a head coach, then they go after someone who has previous work as a head coach. There were even a few where the previous hire, or the new hire came from the college ranks, and the opposite end of that was not a coach from the college ranks. All in all, roughly 84% of the head coaching hires since 2015 were different from their predecessors in some way shape or form. Of the coaches that fell into that category, only about 42% of them were different in multiple ways. Using that logic, below is my prediction of who each team will hire, and a thought on who I would hire if I were in their shoes.

Chicago Bears

Who I think they'll hire: Kliff Kingsbury

I know Ben Johnson is the favorite, but Johnson was choosy last year and I would have to believe that one, he'll be that way again this year, and two, the NFC North would be a factor in that decision. Winning in Chicago while having to deal with the Vikings, Packers and Lions could be incredibly difficult and the person that takes this job could be out in three years because of the competition. That's why I think Johnson passes, and Kingsbury enters in. He has experience working with Caleb Williams at USC, and I saw yesterday that Williams has endorsed him.

Who I would hire if I were them: Liam Coen

Alright, hear me out. Coen has plenty of experience as an OC, and anywhere he's gone it's worked out pretty well for the team that brought him in. Including his work this season with Baker Mayfield who actually improved off what he did with Canales in 2023, rather than regressing. Williams is similar to Mayfield in a lot of ways. Gunslinger type, has a lot of faith in his own arm and ability, very passionate, and often rubs people the wrong way. This would be the no-brainer move to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Who I think they'll hire: Ben Johnson

The Jags messed up. They could've made this the most attractive opening had they just fired their GM. It's still toward the top of the board in my opinion, which should make it a little easier to land the biggest fish. After what Johnson has done for Goff and the Lions offense as a whole, and the money the Jags threw at Lawrence, they should be all in on landing Johnson. And by all in, I mean if he tells them he won't take the job while Baalke is still there, than Baalke should be shown the door immediately.

Who I would hire if I were them: Ben Johnson

Seriously, whatever it takes to get him.

Las Vegas Raiders

Who I think they'll hire: Vance Joseph

Vegas moved on from Pierce after I had finished the rest of the article, and I'm not rewriting anything, so take that into account when reading the rest. This is the worst opening. Poorly run organization, no QB, no real weapons on offense except Brock Bowers, and the O-Line is a problem. Defense has some nice pieces, but it's few and far between. There's a very good chance they may have to take what they can get and move on. Joseph could be enticed at a second chance to be a head coach, and he's just proven he can do great things with a ragtag group of players on defense. Plus, they'd be stealing from a hated rival. So, if he's willing, they shouldn't hesitate.

Who I would hire if I were them: Pete Carroll

Rumor is he wants to go again, so he might be willing to jump at this opportunity. He has plenty of experience, which would go a long way in Vegas' rebuild. Plus, he's 73, his eyes will be on this being his last run, so his presence would be to help build this team up as quickly as possible to make a run sooner rather than later. He could even get a young coach in here learning from him before he rides off into the sunset, a little succession plan.

New England Patriots

Who I think they'll hire: Mike Vrabel

Just as a foot note, I know Vrabel is getting all the attention as a former Patriot and blah blah blah, but I wouldn't rule out Brian Flores (former DC for New England under Belichick). Vrabel would bring the experience that Mayo lacked, he has ties to the team, and it was suspicious timing that Mayo was canned after it was announced that Vrabel interviewed with the Jets.

Who I would hire if I were them: Joe Brady

There's two things that the Patriots should've done and should do, fired both their GM and HC (only did half that), and hire from outside the Belichick tree (or at least three or four branches off of other branches from that tree). The Belichick era is over, it's time to start fresh. Brady would give Maye the offensive minded coach he deserves, and it would have the added bonus of hamstringing a divisional opponent (if only a little).

New Orleans Saints

Who I think they'll hire: Aaron Glenn

I would love to believe an OC's name will be listed here when the dust settles, but their offense is so run down that I'm not sure one of the top names would actually want the job. I mean, if you were one of the top offensive minded coaches in the market, do you choose the spot that has Derek Carr at QB, an under-performing former first round WR, plus both him and the other top WR are coming off season ending injuries, and the star of the offense is a nearly 30-year old RB? That's what leads me to believe the Saints' best option will be a DC. Glenn makes the most sense given his ties to the team, and he'd be a brand new Head Coach after they just gave Allen his second stint as a Head Coach, so the change from the previous regime would be there.

Who I would hire if I were them: Todd Monken

Having said what I said above, I'd still make a run at an offensive minded coach to fix the struggling unit. And I'd hook the coach by telling them they would be able to instill their offense this year and then hand select their QB next year, which means Loomis would have to be willing to go hands off for that selection. Monken isn't one of the top names right now, but look at how Lamar Jackson's passing game has evolved since Monken took over as OC. Not to mention, Monken is no stranger to using the run game to drive the offense, so 2025 wouldn't have to be a complete flop.

New York Jets

Who I think they'll hire: Arthur Smith

Johnson, Coen, Brady and Slowik would be the more attractive options, but Johnson and Slowik were picky last carousel, they likely will be again, and I would expect Brady and Coen to follow them down that route, which leaves the Jets having to dig a little deeper. Smith would be a reach in my opinion, after what we witnessed in Atlanta, but that's the level the Jets will have to be looking at, and they have only their owner to thank for that. He'd be the polar opposite of Robert Saleh.

Who I would hire if I were them: Mike Vrabel

There's plenty of talent, but it's still one of the least attractive openings in my opinion because of the QB situation and their owner. What they need is a head coach who isn't going to just take whatever the owner dishes out. I'm not the biggest fan of Vrabel's, I firmly believe the only reason he's being talked about this cycle is because he coached in an incredibly weak division and road Derrick Henry to division titles, but he is the type of coach the Jets need right now.