Lance's 2026 NFL Draft Grades
My grades are never going to look like everyone else’s out there. I don’t have time to watch a bunch of film on players cause this is not my day job, and I have a wife and a son whom I enjoy spending time with after work. So, I use statistics and probabilities based on those stats and the past performances of other players. It’s what I use to figure out my draft boards, and a little bit of how I address my dynasty rankings, and how I go about my in season college football player rankings. So, my grades below are based on my draft boards, which is based on hardcoded statistics, not a single play that I saw in one game that made me go, “wow, this kid could be insanely good.” And this class did NOT grade out well. Overall, I had 6-10 players receive Day 1 Grades, hands down the lowest total I’ve ever had. That’s specifically if you eliminate my slot boards and just use my WR and CB boards, and that depends on how you want to view the four “Tackles” who received Day 1 grades when put through my Center board. Personally, I would call it 7, cause I think that’s where Spencer Fano should end up (but if I’m being completely honest, I don’t think that’s where he’ll end up). What I’m getting at is, you won’t see any A’s below. No F’s either. I tried to give the benefit of the doubt here and there because 32 guys are going to go in Round 1, no matter what. You’ll see a score, every individual pick receives a point total between 3 (steal) and -2 (I had going undrafted and they were taken earlier than the 6th round), and that score is averaged out among every one of that team’s picks. You’ll also see the Grade, and a Favorite Pick and Least Favorite Pick section.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Score: 1.30 Grade: B+
Favorite Pick: LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (TCU) 4th Round
Elarms-Orr to me equates out to Sonny Styles-lite. Literally. Production scores were within .03 of each other (with Elarms-Orr having the edge, also I’m going to refer to him as KEO from here on cause it’s shorter). Their forties were almost identical (4.47 for KEO, 4.46 for Styles), and KEO’s jumps may not have been as impressive as Styles’ were (40” vert and 10’4” Broad compared to Styles’ 43.5” vert and 11’2” Broad), but they were still impressive! Had he measured in 3 inches taller and 10 pounds heavier he might have gone in the first. He probably also would’ve ran a little slower and not jumped as high or as far, but that’s besides the point. Love the value in the fourth round.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge T.J. Parker (Clemson) 2nd Round
A little nitpicky with this one, but Parker and Ar’maj Reed-Adams (7th round pick) were the only ones that the Bills selected that were taken “a day early.” Parker is one of those Clemson guys who did not live up to expectations. With that, his production was meh. His athletic testing wasn’t any more impressive. Second Round for a guy many thought would slip into the end of the first round might seem like great value to some, but I viewed him as a Day 3 pick, so this was a little rich for me.
Team: Green Bay Packers
Score: 1.17 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: C Jager Burton (Kentucky) 5th Round
I was torn between Burton and Dani Dennis-Sutton because I had Day 2 grades on both and the Packers took them on Day 3. Burton wins out for two reasons: one, he went a round later, so technically better value, and two Sean Rhyan was not great at Center last season. If Burton can hit the ground running, it would allow the Packers to move Rhyan over to Guard (where he should be) to compete with Anthony Belton for the starting spot this year.
Least Favorite Pick: DL Chris McClellan (Missouri) 3rd Round
You’re going to see several D-Lineman listed for least favorite pick, so let me add a little disclaimer: The Defensive Tackle position is by far my worst when you look at my grades from the draft classes I’ve done with at least three years in the NFL, versus the players from those classes that have had success. It’s the only position where my Day 1 grade is below 36% on hit rate (it’s at 20%) and the only position where any of the other “Day” grades have had a higher hit rate than my Day 1 graded players (Day 3 has had a 20.59% hit rate). Having said that, McClellan is the only player the Packers took earlier than the grade I had on him. I had him as a Day 3, they took him in round 3, so he lands here. As a Vikings fan, my actual least favorite pick by the Packers was everyone they drafted, but I try to be unbiased when I write these articles. Skol Vikings.
Team: Denver Broncos
Score: 1.14 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: RB Jonah Coleman (Washington) 4th Round
I would feel so much better about this pick if he had actually run his forty. His speed is the biggest concern. From a production standpoint alone though, he’s a day 2 pick, and that’s why he’s my favorite for the Broncos. There’s the added bonus that he could supplant the oft-injured JK Dobbins as RJ Harvey’s running mate.
Least Favorite Pick: DL Tyler Onyedim (Texas A&M) 3rd Round
As is the theme up in this area, Onyedim is the only player they took who was taken early. I actually like Onyedim. He has solid athleticism, especially in the 10-yard split and short shuttle. And I like the landing spot, he reminds me a bit of Zach Allen for position fit, and now he gets to work alongside him. I suppose what I’m saying is that I probably should’ve list nothing for my least favorite position.
Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Score: 1.10 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: S Treydan Stukes (Arizona) 2nd Round
Stukes was one of my favorite players in the entire draft, and when I read that he was skyrocketing up boards and could find his way into the backend of the first round, I was hoping the Vikings would trade back and take him. They didn’t though, and the Raiders got a steal in the 2nd round. How they decide to use the versatile chess piece will be interesting to see, but I personally would play him as an outside Corner and call it a day.
Least Favorite Pick: RB Mike Washington Jr. (Arkansas) 4th Round
Washington was my sleeper Running Back, and after his Combine performance, I know I wasn’t the only one seeing him in that light, which is why I was shocked when he didn’t go on Day 2. Now, mind you, I had a Day 3 grade on him, but given his size and speed, he has the necessary attributes to blow that out of the water. That was until he landed with the team that spent a top ten pick on Ashton Jeanty last year. I’m disappointed he won’t get a legit shot, barring injury, and I’m disappointed at the dynasty impact of Vegas selecting him.
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Score: 1.00 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: CB Chandler Rivers (Duke) 5th Round
There were three Corners who received a Day 1 grade for both my CB and Slot CB boards. There were 7 Corners who received a Day 2 grade for my CB board, and a Day 1 grade for my Slot CB board. Rivers is 1 of 4 from that group that didn’t go until Day 3, and you’ll actually see all but one of them on this list, and I’ll name them all here so I don’t have to mention this again later: Chandler Rivers, Keionte Scott, Charles Demmings and Toriano Pride Jr. (the only one not listed because I really liked the Elarms-Orr pick by the Bills). Needless to say, the Ravens got a gem at a position of need in round 5.
Least Favorite Pick: WR Ja’Kobi Lane (USC) 3rd Round
This is a little unfair to Lane, but I chose to list him here over Zion Young because of the Elijah Sarratt pick that followed in the next round. Both Young and Lane were taken a day early in my book. The Lane one just looks worse to me because I really like Sarratt. Regardless, Baltimore did a good job adding some big bodies on the outside for Lamar Jackson.
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Score: 1.00 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: Edge Caden Curry (Ohio State) 6th Round
I feel like I am completely alone in this boat, but I really like Caden Curry. He was one of six Edge Rushers with a Day 2 grade on my board. He was consistently toward the top of my weekly Top Ten lists for the college edge rusher articles, and he ultimately finished fourth on the season. Athleticism was the question mark, and he didn’t do himself any favors by not running, but the Colts landing him in the 6th round is crazy good value.
Least Favorite Pick: LB C.J. Allen (Georgia) 2nd Round
Everyone was high on Allen, I wasn’t. I had a Day 3 grade on him, which in itself would have landed him here, but then you top that off with the Colts taking him over Anthony Hill Jr., who they will see in their division twice a year, and it just makes it so much worse. The Colts have done a tremendous job of drafting and developing Linebackers for several years now though, so perhaps they’ll prove me wrong.
Team: Chicago Bears
Score: 0.86 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: C Logan Jones (Iowa) 2nd Round
The best value pick was Malik Muhammad in the fourth round, but my favorite pick was Logan Jones. His arms are a little undersized, but he’s a beast, and he would have to be to anchor that Iowa Offensive Line. The Bears did a great job targeting a replacement for Drew Dalman.
Least Favorite Pick: TE Sam Roush (Stanford) 3rd Round
Roush was my sleeper Tight End, and while I had a Day 3 grade on him, that’s not why he lands here. I’m upset that the Bears drafted him, and he’ll now have to sit behind last year’s first-round pick, Colston Loveland, and Cole Kmet. I heard all the 3-Tight End set talk too, blah blah blah. If you look at the Rams, the golden child that was referenced multiple times when the talking heads brought up the 13 personnel offense, the third Tight End in that offense saw 33 targets last year. Hardly gonna lead to fantasy relevance. Kmet’s contract runs out after 2027, but looking at it from a fantasy perspective as I am, it’s unfortunate that this is where Roush ended up.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Score: 0.80 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: OG Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon) 3rd Round
On my board, Pregnon was the top Guard, so a tremendous pick by the Jags in round 3. On PFF, if you go by 50% of the highest total of snaps by any Guard in the league, then the Jags starting Guards in 2025 ranked 22nd and 51st out of 57. So, clearly there is a need, but the Jags also selected Wyatt Milum last year, a player I said would need to kick inside to Guard but who I thought could excel with the change. So, now there’s a competition right? Competition is always great, but there’s also the Center position, where the Jags’ starting Center in 2025 ranked 21st out of 31. The need is high at both, and Pregnon received a Day 2 grade on my boards for both of those positions.
Least Favorite Pick: TE Nate Boerkircher (Texas A&M) 2nd Round AND TE Tanner Koziol (Houston) 5th Round
First of all, I’m a big fan of Koziol, and I strongly believe he will be the next mid-round Tight End to excel as a pro. What I didn’t like was that the Jags took Boerkircher (had a Day 3 grade for me) in the 2nd round, and that Koziol does not have the same claim to that draft capital. However, we have seen it work out before. Back in 2018 the Ravens took Hayden Hurst in the first round and Mark Andrews in the third, and we know how it unfolded from there.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Score: 0.80 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: OT Keagen Trost (Missouri) 3rd Round
Trost was the #1 Tackle on my board. He’s the newest work well done by Eli Drinkwitz and his staff at Missouri. I thought I was alone in my Day 2 feelings on Trost, but the Rams were right there with me. Warren McClendon Jr. was incredible for them last year when he took over, so there’s no rush for Trost to fill in right away, but McClendon is in the last year of his rookie contract, so if the Rams aren’t able to get a new contract done with him, they have a good replacement option.
Least Favorite Pick: TE Max Klare (Ohio State) 2nd Round
The right round for Klare, but as soon as I saw the pick announced my only thought was “what in the world are the Rams doing?” There are 4 other Tight Ends on their roster who have significant capital and/or played a significant role for the Rams last year: Tyler Higbee who just got a 2-year extension, Terrance Ferguson who they spent a second round pick on last year, Colby Parkinson who was their leader for targets among Tight Ends last year, and Davis Allen, who by all accounts they really like. Allen is in the last year of his deal, so perhaps they move on at the end of the season. But are they really going to carry five Tight Ends this season? And even if that is the case, why are you drafting another Tight End in the 2nd round for the second straight year? Just baffling to me.
Team: Miami Dolphins
Score: 0.77 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech) 2nd Round
Kind of an interesting note with this one. Usually, the team with the most picks ends up in the bottom half of my grades because the more picks you have the more you open yourself up to getting a -2 or -1 on multiple players, so it’s impressive seeing Miami up here. Rodriguez was the only Linebacker on my board to receive a Day 1 grade. I know you’ve heard it a lot since he was drafted, but he is insanely good at forcing turnovers. That’s a great trait to have as a Linebacker, just ask Luke Kuechly. Loved this pick.
Least Favorite Pick: WR Caleb Douglas (Texas Tech) 3rd Round
To be fair, I had a Day 3 grade on Chris Bell as well as Douglas, so I could have shared this label with both. However, I do feel that Bell’s ceiling is higher, which is why it is just Douglas. The Dolphins have major holes to fill at Receiver, two 3rd round picks was the least they could’ve done. But I would have taken Bryce Lance, Skyler Bell (who went to their rival Buffalo), Elijah Sarratt and even Kendrick Law before I ever would’ve considered Douglas. I’d put Zachariah Branch in that category too, but his build is too similar to their de facto WR1, Malik Washington, so I probably wouldn’t have gone that route either.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Score: 0.71 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: OT Brian Parker II (Duke) 5th Round
Going back to those PFF rankings, Cincy’s starting Tackle duo were 32nd and 47th out of 58. The higher of those two was starting Right Tackle, Amarius Mims, which is the side Parker predominantly played at Duke. Still, 32nd doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence when your franchise QB is a known injury risk. Parker received a Day 2 grade on my Tackle board, and I love the insurance value for the Bengals. I know there are some out there who believe he will move inside as a pro. He received a Day 2 grade across all my boards, so that’s still great value.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge Cashius Howell (Texas A&M) 2nd Round
Short arms alone is not enough to cause an Edge Rusher to receive an undrafted grade by me, a certain lack of collegiate production also has to be met. Howell fell into both categories, and the same applies to Rueben Bain who you’ll see listed below. He was always going to go this high, you just don’t want to be the team that pulls that trigger.
Team: Detroit Lions
Score: 0.71 Grade: C+
Favorite and Least Favorite Pick: WR Kendrick Law (Kentucky) 5th Round
This is the only one where one player covers both categories. Law had a little bit of a breakout in his final season. He led Kentucky in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. The totals in those areas (64 targets, 53 catches and 540 yards) aren’t that impressive, but this was a team that struggled to throw the ball. His career reception rate was absurdly high, as was his yards after the catch rate. The measurables weren’t too shabby either with that 42” vertical and 10’8” Broad Jump. In the end he managed to earn a Day 2 grade on my WR board with the 5th highest score. So, why is it also my least favorite pick? Cause the Lions don’t utilize their WR3. Last year, the Receiver on their team with the third highest target total had just 28, and if you combine that with the Receiver who came in fourth than it’s just 54 total. With Isaac TeSlaa expected to take on that role even more this year, it becomes more apparent that Law is just not going to see the work to prove himself, barring an injury of course.
Team: New York Giants
Score: 0.71 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: OT J.C. Davis (Illinois) 6th Round
The last of the four Tackles that I gave Day 2 grades to. Like Kadyn Proctor (one of the other Tackles with a Day 2 grade), Davis was a Left Tackle in college. Andrew Thomas is one of the best Tackles in football. The issue has been health. He’s played 29 total games over the last three seasons. Davis can provide the depth they desperately need behind Thomas. And potentially replace him down the road if he reaches the level I believe he can.
Least Favorite Pick: WR Malachi Fields (Notre Dame) 3rd Round
I strongly considered putting Arvell Reese here, not because I don’t think he’ll succeed as a pro, but because the Giants had a ton of different spots they should have gone, but instead they decided to reinforce their best position. And I know they’ve said he’s going to play off the ball, but to me that’s like saying we just spent the 5th pick on this guy and we’re not even going to play him at his best position. But that’s not who I listed. The Giants gave up a lot to get back into the third round to draft Malachi Fields. I do not see why people are so high on him. By my numbers he was one of the least productive Receivers in this class (37th out of 47), and one of the least athletic (37th out of the 42 who did some sort of testing). I had an undrafted grade on him; couple that with what they paid to get him, and it became the obvious choice for my least favorite pick.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Score: 0.70 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: WR Germie Bernard (Alabama) 2nd Round
As an Alabama fan, Bernard was my favorite player on the team these last two years. He just goes out there and gets the job done. When games were getting down to crunch time, he was the one I was hoping they would get the ball too. Sure, they missed out on Makai Lemon, no big deal though, cause the Steelers got themselves a great one.
Least Favorite Pick: RB Eli Heidenreich (Navy) 7th Round
I’m a big fan of Heidenreich’s. By my numbers he was Pitt’s best value pick. But… For those thinking he would move to Receiver as a pro, he’d now almost certainly find himself behind DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr. and Bernard. On the RB depth chart, he’s going to have to fight with last year’s starter, Jaylen Warren, the newly signed Rico Dowdle, and last year’s 3rd round pick Kaleb Johnson. I know if Pitt passed on him he likely would’ve gone undrafted, but he’s got such an uphill battle in Pitt that it almost might have been worth that. Who knows though, maybe Johnson and Heidenreich show Mike McCarthy and his staff enough to make Warren and Dowdle cap casualties after this season.
Team: New York Jets
Score: 0.63 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: CB D’Angelo Ponds (Indiana) 2nd Round
I did see the Daniel Jeremiah reaction after this pick. I don’t do comps, so that is not the reason I have Ponds here. I was just very high on Ponds. Like, I was calling for him to go in the first round kind of high. I don’t believe his height will be a hinderance. He’s a very talented Corner, and he has the freaky athleticism needed to more than make up for what he lacks in height.
Least Favorite Pick: QB Cade Klubnik (Clemson) 4th Round
If your plan was to shoot for a QB next year and take a mid-round flier on one this season, then why Klubnik? All he did was underwhelm at Clemson. Nothing about his game makes me think he’ll succeed as a pro. If you wanted to go that route than take Garrett Nussmeier with the injury risk cause at least you know why he underperformed last season. Or better yet, take the height risk with Diego Pavia and bring in the guy who took a year-after-year bottom feeder (sound familiar Jets fans?) in Vanderbilt and brought them up into the national spotlight. There were several other options I could list. Haynes King reminds me of Brock Purdy. Luke Altmyer was stud for another annual bottom feeder in Illinois. Joey Aguilar was my sleeper at the position. By all means, take a flier, but do a better job of it.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Score: 0.63 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: S Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech) 7th Round
He’s the only player you’ll see me list who did not receive a Combine invite. He’s not the only player that didn’t receive a Combine invite, that I felt was robbed, but he was towards the top of that list in my book. Wisniewski was a beast at North Dakota State two years ago, and after jumping up to a Power 4 conference, his production barely dipped. He’s a ballhawk, and the Eagles once again get an absolute steal in an overlooked, Combine excluded, Safety (a la Reed Blankenship anyone?).
Least Favorite Pick: QB Cole Payton (North Dakota State) 5th Round
I noticed a little bit of a double standard during the draft. Ty Simpson’s lack of significant playing time was harped on just about every time someone brought up the “biggest surprise” of the first round. But when Payton went I heard multiple pundits talk about how he could challenge for Hurts’ job, some saying down the road, but at least one said immediately. Here’s a stat for you; Ty Simpson collegiate pass attempts: 525, Cole Payton collegiate pass attempts: 284 (both of those are courtesy of PFF). Where was the outrage over Payton’s lack of significant playing time? I had an undrafted grade on Payton and the lack of pass attempts is a big reason why. Here’s a little insight to what I do with these boards, total pass attempts is something that I look at, because under 500 collegiate pass attempts is one of my “empty” factors. Those are the factors that have led to complete non-success in the pro world over the decade of players that I’m currently using for building out my boards (2014-2023).
Team: Cleveland Browns
Score: 0.60 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo) 2nd Round
It’s not that they landed him in the second round, cause I had a second round grade on him. It’s how late in the second round they got him. So many teams just watched him slide on by, including my Vikings. It was crazy to see, and great value for the Browns at that point.
Least Favorite Pick: OT Spencer Fano (Utah) 1st Round
I put OT on purpose. Cause OG Spencer Fano or Center Spencer Fano would’ve been solid picks in the first round in my book. But OT Spencer Fano, not so much. I don’t believe he can play Tackle in the pros. I do believe the Browns are going to attempt to learn that the hard way, especially after spending the 9th overall selection on him. Their saving grace is that he can kick inside and succeed in the event that I’m right.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Score: 0.57 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: DL Kaleb Proctor (SE Louisiana) 4th Round
My sleeper at D-Line. The one guy with a Day 3 grade who I felt confident in saying I believe he’s going to far outplay that. So, the run defense wasn’t as good as the pass rush ability, so what? You can coach him up in how to better play against the run, you cannot coach that 4.79 speed, and you don’t have to worry about teaching him how to use that to get past lineman.
Least Favorite Pick: RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) 1st Round
Love was one of those aforementioned players I had a Day 1 grade on, so this definitely has nothing to do with his talent or my grade on him. This is a little bit of a personal vendetta, and a little bit of a “what are you doing?”. On the personal vendetta side, I have had Tyler Allgeier in my dynasty league since his rookie season. I stuck with him after the Bijan Robinson pick (who I also have) because I knew eventually he would get another shot. That shot had finally arrived when Arizona signed him, and then they went and did this. Despicable. As for the other reason for putting him here. I heard so many analysts say, “they took him because they needed to put something more exciting out on the football field for their fans.” No, they need to put a winning team out on the football field for their fans, and you do that by using your higher picks to fix major areas of need. Running Back was not a major area of need. And if you felt 3 was too rich to spend a pick on fixing your O-Line, then trade back, or take Arvell Reese who also would’ve filled a major area of need. Love will be a great player in this league, of that I have no doubt, Arizona’s decision making on this one is what kills me.
Team: Carolina Panthers
Score: 0.57 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: S Zakee Wheatley (Penn State) 5th Round
Carolina was one of two teams everyone expected to go after Thieneman in the first (the Vikings being the other). They elected to fill the gap at Tackle with Ikem Ekwonu recovering from injury, and bonus, Freeling could move inside to Guard when Ekwonu is back. The even bigger bonus is they landed Wheatley in the 5th round. To be perfectly honest, Wheatley was not on my radar really until after his pro day numbers were posted. That’s when he leapt up to a Day 2 grade, and up to 4th on my top five for the Safety position.
Least Favorite Pick: DL Lee Hunter (Texas Tech) 2nd Round
I feel like it’s every season now that there’s a draft darling who arises (for me at least) from an interview they do during the pre-draft process. Hunter was that guy this year. Loved his personality from the interview he did at the Combine. I still gotta list him here though because the Panthers took him a day early. The alternative would have been to list Chris Brazzell, but since Hunter went a round earlier he gets the nod.
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Score: 0.50 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: WR Zachariah Branch (Georgia) 3rd Round
I was wondering how Branch’s arrest a few days before the draft would effect his draft positioning. What he did may not seem like a whole lot, but it’s enough to get the teams looking to draft him to reconsider his character, and with just days to figure out exactly what happened I thought things could get really bad for him. But they didn’t. This was one round lower than I think most expected, so it may have affected him a little, but not enough to make you go “what a boneheaded mistake”. His size also could’ve played into it. Regardless, he had my highest score for the WR board, and he was 4th for my Top 5 WRs (because his grade on my slot board wasn’t as high as the guys above him). Plus, he fills a major need for the Falcons, so I really like this pick.
Least Favorite Pick: LB Kendal Daniels (Oklahoma) 4th Round
Some think safety for Daniels, some think Linebacker, doesn’t matter to me, I had an undrafted grade on him. He could be a nice depth piece with that versatility, but I would still argue the 4th is too rich for me if that’s what you’re drafting him for specifically. And he was also the only player the Falcons took who didn’t go on the same day of the grade I had on them, so easy pick for me in this category.
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Score: 0.50 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: RB Jadarian Price (Notre Dame) 1st Round
Technically Price went day 1 and I had a Day 2 grade on him, but it was at 32, so I decided to cut Seattle some slack. Especially since this was arguably their biggest need. Price was my #2 Running Back as well, one of three to receive a Day 2 grade (Love was the only one to receive a Day 1 grade), and he was the Day 2 back I felt the most comfortable with. Value was solid enough, and I also love this pick from the fantasy impact perspective, because there really wasn’t much at this position in this draft.
Least Favorite Pick: OG Beau Stephens (Iowa) 5th Round
Same boat as Daniels above, Stephens had an undrafted grade on my board, and for me I don’t start giving a little reprieve in that category until they start going in round 6, so here we are. I liked Stephens at Iowa a lot, but he took a major hit because of his athletic testing and was removed from my board (so to speak). If he can prove me wrong in that area, he would be the first Guard to do so in the years that I’ve been doing this, and from what I saw him do at Iowa I wouldn’t rule that out as a possibility.
Team: Tennessee Titans
Score: 0.50 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: Edge Keldric Faulk (Auburn) 1st Round
Loved this pick because Faulk really does have inside-outside versatility on the D-Line, and he earned a Day 2 grade on both boards for me. And then you throw in the fact that he went to Robert Saleh and it just makes me more excited about it.
Least Favorite Pick: RB Nicholas Singleton (Penn State) 5th Round
Singleton electing not to do any athletic testing hurt him on my boards, because what he did from a production standpoint at Penn State earned him an undrafted label for me. Having watched a few Penn State games, and tracked several others, I was not impressed by what he did. Kaytron Allen was the more impressive back to me, and he also received an undrafted grade on my board. Singleton could’ve done his forty, proved the pundits right (supposedly he would’ve run decently fast) and I still would’ve listed him here because I just don’t see it.
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Score: 0.43 Grade: C
Favorite Pick: CB Mansoor Delane (LSU) 1st Round
Delane in the first is not some big Earth shifting pick, but it was a great move for the Chiefs. He’s extremely talented, has the ability to play inside and out by my numbers, and he fills a giant void from the McDuffie trade.
Least Favorite Pick: DL Peter Woods (Clemson) 1st Round
I have two things to say on this. First, Woods gets listed here because I had a Day 3 grade on him, and they took him in the first. Of course, as I mentioned before, D-Line is easily my worst when it comes to my grades versus actual results. And second, this is absolutely the best situation Woods could’ve landed in. If there’s a team that is going to get him to reach his full potential it’s the team that currently has one of the best D-Tackles in the sport who can coach him up. But that doesn’t stop me from putting him here because of the difference in my grade versus the capital spent on him.
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Score: 0.43 Grade: C
Favorite Pick: CB Keionte Scott (Miami) 4th Round
Just like Chandler Rivers for Baltimore, Scott had a Day 2 grade at outside Corner and Day 1 grade on my Slot CB board, so this was theft. The Bucs lost Jamel Dean this offseason, making Corner a definite need and they got a very good one in the 4th round. Scott should’ve been gone way before this.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) 1st Round
Go back up to Cincinnati and read what I wrote for Howell, then come back down here and read the rest of this. I think Bain’s ceiling is similar to that of Carl Lawson. A pass rush specialist. Not someone you want to have to rely on for first and second downs, but you bring out for 3rd and long. That’s not someone I’m using a first round pick on.
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Score: 0.25 Grade: C
Favorite Pick: OT Travis Burke (Memphis) 4th Round
Burke has pretty significant experience on both sides of the Offensive Line, so there’s some serious swing-tackle potential here, and that is EXACTLY what the Chargers needed. They seem to battle injuries every season, and last year they watched their franchise QB take a beating because they lost both of their star Tackles. Burke is a great insurance draft pick in the 4th round.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge Akheem Mesidor (Miami) 1st Round
Y’all are gonna start thinking I’ve got something against Miami. I don’t, I swear I don’t. Mesidor lands here because I had a Day 3 grade on him and he went Day 1. I would argue that his decision not to do any athletic testing hurt him, and made it harder for me to evaluate him, so I won’t be surprised if he completely proves me wrong.
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Score: 0.25 Grade: C
Favorite Pick: OT Enrique Cruz Jr. (Kansas) 5th Round
I had a Day 2 grade on Cruz, and a Day 3 grade on Carver Willis (who they took in the 4th round), so that’s why Cruz gets the edge. But realistically the answer is whichever of the two the Niners deem as the successor to Trent Williams. That’s the guy who is going to learn to play Left Tackle from one of the greatest Left Tackles in league history. And both guys have experience on both sides of the O-Line. Cruz mostly played Right Tackle last season, but he predominantly played Left Tackle in his collegiate career, and Willis is the opposite of that, having played exclusively on the left side last year, but he almost had double the snaps on the right side in his college career. The other bonus, the guy they decide is better at Right Tackle could be the eventual successor to current starter Colton McKivitz who is signed through 2028, but the Niners have a potential out on after 2027. San Fran may have just gotten both of their future bookend Tackles in the 4th and 5th rounds this year.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge Romello Height (Texas Tech) 3rd Round
Super easy pick for me. I had an undrafted grade on Height and the Niners took him in the third. He actually hit on one of my “empty” factors, this one was a height-weight-speed issue (not a pun), and Edge is another one of those positions where players I’ve put through my boards that have hit on an “empty” factor have not yet succeeded.
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Score: 0.22 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: CB Charles Demmings (Stephen F. Austin) 5th Round
Just like Chandler Rivers and Keionte Scott, Demmings also fell into that group with a Day 2 CB grade, Day 1 Slot grade, and was taken on Day 3. As a Vikings fan, they made a lot of picks that just plain frustrated me. Banks in the first, Golday over Anthony Hill, Domonique Orange period, and Jakobe Thomas in the 3rd when they had the opportunity to steal McNiel-Warren in the second…it was just a brutal first and second day. But this pick made me fist pump and do a little dance. Coverage-wise Demmings was phenomenal at Stephen F. Austin. It’s his run defense that he’ll need to work on and I feel like Flores can get that taken care of. That explosiveness (4.41 forty, 42” vertical, 11’ broad) at his size (just over 6’1”, and 193 pounds) were major selling points as well.
Least Favorite Pick: DL Domonique Orange (Iowa State) 3rd Round
I said way back up toward the top that D-Line is the only position where players that have received a Day 3 grade in my system have a higher success rate than players that have received a Day 1 grade. However, players who received an Undrafted grade don’t have that kind of backing. Only 3.85% of those players have hit. Orange received an undrafted grade, the Vikings took him in the 3rd round, so he lands in this category. I will say, I also did not like the Caleb Banks or Jake Golday picks. If the Vikings were always going to go D-Line in the first and third, than I would’ve taken Kayden McDonald in the first and Kaleb Proctor in the third, add in Emmanuel McNiel-Warren in the second and take Kaleb Elarms-Orr in where they took Jakobe Thomas, and Brian Parker over Caleb Tiernan, that’s how I would’ve done their Day 1 and Day 2 picks had I addressed the same exact positions.
Team: New England Patriots
Score: 0.22 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: OT Caleb Lomu (Utah) 1st Round
Lomu was the only Tackle to go on Day 1 that I had a Day 3 grade on for both Tackle and Guard (excluding Spencer Fano who I gave an undrafted grade at Tackle but Day 2 at Guard and Day 1 at Center). I still really like the Pats going and getting Lomu though. He basically played only Left Tackle (98% based on PFF), and I know there’s some talk that he’ll play Right Tackle, which is also a need for the Pats, but I’m still firmly in the camp that Will Campbell needs to move inside, and Lomu gives the Pats the potential to do exactly that.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge Gabe Jacas (Illinois) 2nd Round
If I’m going to list Lomu as the favorite then the least favorite slides to the next pick. I had a Day 3 grade on Jacas, so the Pats took him a day early. His production was average. He didn’t run, which didn’t help for my boards. He does have good size though, so score one for the pro column.
Team: Houston Texans
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: OG Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech) 1st Round
Technically a “day early” selection cause I had a Day 2 grade on him, but they took him in the 20s of the first round. They need to fix the Line in front of Stroud, and Rutledge was a great start to that. Throughout the process I heard him mostly referred to as a mauler in the run game, but he actually had one of the higher pass rush win rates among the Lineman in this draft. Something to note with that though, when I look at win rate, I look at the career as a whole. I know with a lot of the pundits out there they like to specifically point out the final season, which is fine, I just want to make that clarification.
Least Favorite Pick: TE Marlin Klein (Michigan) 2nd Round
I don’t get the infatuation with Klein. His size maybe? I don’t know. Production was non-existent. He ranked 74th out of the 110 Tight Ends that qualified on my final in-season college Tight End rankings. His athletic testing was pretty good, but even if you want to compare him to someone else who was in a similar situation in this draft class, Oscar Delp, he fell below him in production and well below him in the athletic category, but he went 14 picks before Delp. I had an undrafted grade on Klein. The Texans had a whole bunch of guys they should’ve taken over him.
Team: New Orleans Saints
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: WR Bryce Lance (North Dakota State) 4th Round
Lance might be my favorite receiver in the entire draft. Not my highest rated, my favorite. His size (6’3” 204 pounds), his athleticism (4.34 forty, 1.49 10-split, 41.5” vertical, 11’1” broad jump, and that 4.15 short shuttle were all insane), and his production, especially touchdown production, would’ve had me salivating if I was a GM. He had 1079 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 51 catches this season, and that was with a Quarterback who only threw the ball 226 times (271 team total if you include his backups). How he fell to the fourth I may never understand, but good on the Saints for pulling that trigger. Not only was their need at Receiver great enough that spending a first round pick on the position was never going to be enough, but the guy they selected in the first has a medical history that is a concern, so the Lance pick could lessen the pain if Jordyn Tyson doesn’t pan out.
Least Favorite Pick: DL Christen Miller (Georgia) 2nd Round
Just like Domonique Orange, Miller also received an undrafted grade on my board. That coupled with the second round draft capital spent on him made this an easy listing for me. It feels like Georgia Defensive Tackles get a bump on draft night just because they played defensive tackle for Georgia. Kind of like Alabama Offensive Lineman toward the end of Nick Saban’s tenure (Jedrick Wills, Evan Neal, Alex Leatherwood, etc…). He was removed from my board because of his lack of production. Which, by the way, at his size in my system does not require a whole lot to get above the bare minimum.
Team: Washington Commanders
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: WR Antonio Williams (Clemson) 3rd Round
Williams was the #1 Receiver on my Top 5. Day 2 grade on my WR board, a Day 1 grade on my Slot board. If you got a chance to look at the change I included on my rankings this time around (before I site was wiped clean), you saw that I included a new “B+” and “C+” category, with B+ representing their chance at being at least a high-end starter, and C+ representing their chance at being at least a solid starter. I mention all that to say that Williams also tied for highest B+ percentage on the WR board. I did get a little concerned when I started reading several pundits’ evaluations of Williams and they were calling him just a slot receiver. I believe he can play inside and outside, and the Commanders drafting him, with a big need at Receiver, and not taking any other Receivers, makes me feel good about that evaluation.
Least Favorite Pick: Edge Joshua Josephs (Tennessee) 5th Round
Undrafted grade, and a round earlier then when I start to give players with those grades a little reprieve, so he finds himself in this category for me. There’s an extra negative to it, which is that Washington needed additional Edge Rusher help. They addressed it some in free agency, which allowed them to wait until the 5th to add depth with upside, but the execution was bad in my opinion. Caden Curry was my top rated Edge Rusher remaining at this point, but I don’t think the scheme fit would’ve worked out. Nadame Tucker went undrafted and he was my top rated Day 3 Edge Rusher. There was also the intriguing aspects of George Gumbs Jr.’s potential and he went 9 picks after Washington took Josephs.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Score: -0.14 Grade: D
Favorite Pick: Edge Malachi Lawrence (UCF) 1st Round
Another guy who I had a Day 2 grade on but who went in the 20s, so I don’t really mind that he was taken a day early. His combine performance was incredibly impressive. That performance also helped back up his pretty high Sack Rate. That’s one of the stats I look at for Edge Rushers and it’s just how often they are getting home to the QB after putting pressure on him. Lawrence’s 21.0% in that category put him in the top ten of this class, and that 4.52 forty with the 40” vert and 10’10” broad jump helped put the explanation point on that.
Least Favorite Pick: LB Jaishawn Barham (Michigan) 3rd Round
Weird tweener situation for Barham. The Cowboys likely drafted him to play Linebacker, not Edge, but it doesn’t matter to me cause I had an undrafted grade for him at both positions.