Lance's One and Only 2026 Mock Draft
Well, we had an unfortunate incident where a built-in integration for Ghost (where we had been housing our site) was exploited by a hacker, who deleted all of our articles and pages. Bryar is in the process of getting as much of that back as possible. Everything that has been posted so far this year is gone, gone though, so over the next few weeks I will work on getting all of my draft boards back up. I’m not going to worry about re-posting anything else though. Here’s my one and only mock draft for this season, I hope I’m 100% right, but even if I only get one correct, at least I had fun creating it.
This is the one that I combine the draft rumors I’ve read, the favored positions each team is projected to take and I consider how favored that position is, and the last piece I use is my predictive model. So, I will include how high up the player is on the model’s list for that team, as well as the percentage the model gives for that player to be selected at that pick.
1) Las Vegas Raiders
Player: QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) – 1st, 85.71%
Reasoning: It’s all Mendoza, no ifs, ands or buts about it. That percentage by my predictive model is absurdly high, which is just really nice to see.
2) New York Jets
Player: Edge Arvell Reese (Ohio State) – Tied for 4th, 42.86%
Reasoning: Believe it or not, Carnell Tate has the highest percentage to go here per my predictive model. However, Edge is easily the HEAVY favorite for position here, enough so that it would be a shocking upset if they went any other position. Reese has the edge, pun intended, on Bailey by my numbers.
3) **TRADE** Kansas City Chiefs (via Arizona)
Player: WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State) – Tied for 1st, 34.69%
Reasoning: One of the rumors I saw swirling last week was to expect a crazy amount of trades. Trying to predict every possible trade would be lunacy, but not predicting any would be setting my mock up for failure. So, I went with a solid five, starting here. Kansas City gives up both firsts to get in front of the Titans, Giants and Browns, all rumored to have heavy interest in Tate, in order to secure the top Receiver in this draft for Mahomes.
4) Tennessee Titans
Player: Edge David Bailey (Texas Tech) – 1st, 50.79%
Reasoning: Jeremiyah Love is the favorite to go here, but not by enough to consider it a lock. If Bailey is still around, then I don’t see a world in which Robert Saleh, the man who loves his edge rushers, allows him to slide on by.
5) New York Giants
Player: S Caleb Downs (Ohio State) – 1st, 42.86%
Reasoning: The primary belief is that the Giants are going to take Sonny Styles or Jeremiyah Love here. However, my gut has said Harbaugh is going to go Downs since I started tinkering with my mock a month ago, my predictive model has backed that up along the way, and neither has wavered in that thinking.
6) **TRADE** Dallas Cowboys (via Cleveland)
Player: LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State) – 1st, 44.44%
Reasoning: Dallas gives up both firsts to get this pick, which might seem steep, but I think in order to go from 12 to 6, that’s going to be the requirement if they’re unwilling to part with 2027 draft capital. It’ll be worth it in their eyes once they see the Giants pass on Styles.
7) **TRADE** Miami Dolphins (via Washington)
Player: OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia) – 2nd, 34.92%
Reasoning: Miami has so much draft capital to play with that a little jump like this would be easy enough to execute. Plus, Washington is a heavy trade down favorite, including by my numbers, so this seems like a match made in Heaven. Miami gets to jump in front of the Cardinals and take a Tackle (which by my numbers, Freeling is the favorite in that area), and Washington gets to drop down a little.
8) New Orleans Saints
Player: WR Denzel Boston (Washington) – Tied for 1st, 40.26%
Reasoning: Boston is actually tied with Jordyn Tyson for 1st in my predictive model, so call this a gut feeling. There are rumored to be several front offices who view Boston as the 2nd or 3rd best Receiver in this draft. He’s also viewed as the safest Receiver behind Carnell Tate. The Saints are able to land a bigger physical Receiver to pair with Chris Olave.
9) **TRADE** Arizona Cardinals (via Kansas City)
Player: OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami) – Tied for 4th, 35.71%
Reasoning: Arizona trades back and they still get the Tackle everyone assumes they’re eyeing at 3, it’s the perfect scenario. Mauigoa can slot right in on the right side, and give Arizona’s future QB a nice pair of young bookend Tackles.
10) New York Giants (via Cincinnati)
Player: RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) – Tied for 5th, 36.84%
Reasoning: The Giants snag Downs at 5 and are still able to land Love all the way down at 10?! Well, if the first round starts getting as crazy as I think it will, then this scenario could play out. The other player that was high (2nd) for my predictive model was Jordyn Tyson, so it could just come down to who they want their rival to have less.
11) **TRADE** Washington Commanders (via Miami)
Player: WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) – Tied for 2nd, 32.14%
Reasoning: Daniels needs pass catchers, McLaurin may be past his prime if last year is any indication, and it’s not looking like the Brandon Aiyuk trade is going to work out, so here’s to hoping Tyson can stay healthy as a pro.
12) **TRADE** Cleveland Browns (via Dallas)
Player: WR Makai Lemon (USC) – Tied for 1st, 57.14%
Reasoning: Cleveland loses out on the Carnell Tate sweepstakes, but the talent difference between Tate and Lemon isn’t all that far off in my opinion, and they land pick 20 with the trade back, so I would call this a win.
13) Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta)
Player: CB Mansoor Delane (LSU) – Tied for 2nd, 50.00%
Reasoning: Lemon and Tyson are both gone before the Rams picks, which makes me think a trade back might be the most likely outcome, but who wants to come up? Maybe the Jets or Vikings, and it would likely be to snag Delane who is tumbling thanks to the weird nature of how I see this draft playing out. Ultimately Les Snead elects to stay put and take the best player available. Delane pairs with fellow 1st round pick…sort of, by way of trade, Trent McDuffie, giving the Rams a talented new Corner duo.
14) Baltimore Ravens
Player: TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon) – Tied for 1st, 38.96%
Reasoning: My numbers suggest it likely won’t be an Interior Offensive Lineman and I like to lean into the 60-70% when there’s a good alternative. That alternative is Sadiq. Andrews was re-signed, but Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar are both gone. Not to mention, Andrews was a shell of himself last year, and was shaky finishing off the 2024 season. Sadiq gives them that second Tight End they love to use and the future replacement for one of their key offensive pieces.
15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Player: Edge Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) – Tied for 1st, 36.51%
Reasoning: The Bucs going Edge seems highly likely. I’m not a Bain fan, but I know there are still plenty of supporters out there saying he’s a top ten talent, so technically the Bucs are getting a steal at 15. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs went Keldric Faulk or Akheem Mesidor here, and we saw Bain fall completely out of the first round (short-arm Edge Rushers don’t go in the first anymore, I’m pretty sure there hasn’t been one this century).
16) New York Jets (via Indianapolis)
Player: WR Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana) – Tied for 1st, 57.14%
Reasoning: It would’ve been Jermod McCoy here, but with the news recently about the knee and him possibly needing another surgery with a lengthy recovery time, it feels like a sure thing he’s going to slide at least to the end of the 1st, maybe into the second. The Jets have pick 33, so they take a chance that he’ll still be there at the start of round 2, and they go Receiver with this pick. Cooper almost feels like a Garrett Wilson clone (in size, athletic traits and play style), but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially given who their QB1 is, for this season anyway.
17) Detroit Lions
Player: OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) – Tied for 20th, 22.45%
Reasoning: According to my predictive model this is very unlikely. I’m leaning into the draft rumors here, and that buzz is screaming that the Lions absolutely love Proctor.
18) **TRADE** Pittsburgh Steelers (via Minnesota)
Player: WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) – 1st, 44.17%
Reasoning: With almost every first round Receiver off the board before we even get to the 20s, the Steelers make a move up to secure their guy. Getting in front of the Panthers and Browns might not seem all that necessary since the Browns already took a Receiver and the Panthers drafted McMillan last year, but the Browns need more help at Receiver than just Lemon, and the Panthers already said they’ll go Receiver again if they think someone available at 19 is the most talented guy on the board. Not to mention, the Niners and Bills are both viewed as potential Receiver landing spots and could try and move in front of Pitt to get one. This is the smart move to make sure you don’t get left holding the bag.
19) Carolina Panthers
Player: LB CJ Allen (Georgia) – 1st, 42.86%
Reasoning: They signed Devin Lloyd this offseason, and now they complete their Linebacker rebuild by selecting CJ Allen here. Dan Morgan leaves the war room smiling ear to ear.
20) **TRADE** Cleveland Browns (via Dallas/Green Bay)
Player: OL Spencer Fano (Utah) – 5th, 38.10%
Reasoning: I do not believe Fano will be able to play Tackle as a pro, but I’m listing him as O-Line instead of Interior O-Line because I believe whoever drafts him is going to try and play him at Tackle. Fortunately for Cleveland, if I’m proven right, he still figures to have the potential to be a premier Guard or Center by my numbers, and they could use him at either spot (Elgton Jenkins can also play both, and besides, he is coming off a 9 game season due to an injury).
21) **TRADE** Minnesota Vikings (via Pittsburgh)
Player: S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon) – Tied for 1st, 42.86%
Reasoning: Everyone seems to think Minnesota is going to go Safety, kind of like last year. Everyone seems to think that Thieneman is a lock to go in the first, kind of like Nick Emmanwori last year. The fact is, Safety is a very undervalued position nowadays. We don’t see too many go in the first round anymore. Since 2015, there have been 15 Safeties that have gone in the first round. That averages out to just under 1.5 a season. But the fun underlying stat to that is that from 2015-2025 every draft that has seen a Safety go in the first has seen at least two go, except 2015 and 2025. What I mean is we saw at least 2 go in round 1 for 2022, 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016, 1 go in round 1 for 2015 and 2025, and none go in round one for the other years. So, I’ll go with the crowd on this one and stick Thieneman with the Vikings, but I really hope if they’re going to go Safety they trade back as far as they can before they make that pick.
22) **TRADE** San Francisco 49ers (via LA Chargers)
Player: OT Caleb Lomu (Utah) – Tied for 8th, 28.57%
Reasoning: All of the Receivers are gone, and that really narrows down the positions of need vs the talent left for San Fran. So, they make a move up to get in front of Philly, a heavy favorite to go Tackle, and the Browns, who could theoretically try for two Tackles, and they snag Caleb Lomu who would have the opportunity to learn from one of the greatest Left Tackles of all-time.
23) Philadelphia Eagles
Player: Edge Keldric Faulk (Auburn) – Tied for 5th, 34.29%
Reasoning: Faulk gives the Eagles something they absolutely love, versatility. He has the athleticism to play outside, and the size to slide inside on passing downs and wreak havoc. I believe he could land as high as 7 (if Washington sticks and picks, and elects to pass on a Receiver), so if he falls to 23, I think Roseman jumps on him.
24) Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville)
Player: Edge Akheem Mesidor (Miami) – Tied for 4th, 38.10%
Reasoning: What to do with a third first round pick. Well, this team needs a lot of help in a lot of areas, and re-drafting a position already selected would not be a bad idea, so pretty much everything is on the board. I like the idea of the Browns finally investing high draft capital to get a talented running mate for Myles Garrett.
25) Chicago Bears
Player: DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State) – Tied for 1st, 34.29%
Reasoning: Edge is technically the favorite position for the Bears, but by my numbers, that seems unlikely. D-Line is another big need, and McDonald has the highest percentage among the D-Lineman according to my predictive model.
26) Buffalo Bills
Player: IOL Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State) – 2nd, 33.93%
Reasoning: Going to go against the rumor mill for this one. The smoke is that other teams are expecting Buffalo to go defense. But Ioane is a top 15 talent in this class, so if he falls this far can they really afford to pass on him? I’m saying no, especially with a need at Guard, and an All-Pro Quarterback you need to keep upright.
27) **TRADE** Los Angeles Chargers (via San Francisco)
Player: DL Peter Woods (Clemson) – Tied for 5th, 35.71%
Reasoning: Traded down just slightly too far to land Ioane. That’s alright though, I think the plan was to go D-Line all along. Woods might have the highest ceiling of any Defensive Tackle in this class, but I question why he wasn’t able to consistently display that talent in college.
28) Houston Texans
Player: OT Blake Miller (Clemson) – Tied for 1st, 25.00%
Reasoning: Does Houston actually need another Right Tackle? They signed Braden Smith, but Smith has also missed 16 games (I believe) over the last three seasons. The bigger need is definitely at Left Tackle, but Miller is the best Tackle available and he helps fill arguably their biggest problem area. And who knows, maybe he’ll be able to transition to the opposite side seamlessly.
29) **TRADE** Arizona Cardinals (via Kansas City/LA Rams)
Player: QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) – 1st, 50.00%
Reasoning: The trade with the Chiefs allows the Cards to get that extra first round pick, which happens to be before the Jets go again at 33, and that allows them to land Simpson. I know, I know. There’s a whole bunch of talk about how talented the QB class is going to be in 2027, so everyone should just wait. But I’d like everyone to take a minute to remember that the same was being said in favor of the 2025 class before last year’s draft. Garrett Nussmeier, Cade Klubnik and Drew Allar were all supposed to dominate in their final seasons. Arch Manning was supposed to prove his generational talent billing by going scorched Earth on the SEC and then rolling right into being the #1 pick. Sam Leavitt was supposed to double-down on his 2024 showing. And LaNorris Sellers was the uber-athlete who was ready to take the next step in his passing game. There were supposed to be 6 sure thing first round QBs, and none of them were name Fernando Mendoza or Ty Simpson. A lot can change in a year, so why not take what is right in front of you right now?
30) Miami Dolphins (via Denver)
Player: CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina) – 1st, 36.51%
Reasoning: A surprise name, one that might give Dolphins fans flashbacks to Noah Igbinoghene. But there is a difference here. Cisse was actually viewed as a late first rounder about a month ago. The heat around him has cooled off, but not because of anything he did (I don’t think anyway). He’s got good speed (4.46 at his pro day from what I could find), but it’s that explosiveness he demonstrated with his jumps that’s the most impressive (41” vertical and 10’11” Broad). Plus, he’s first according to my predictive model, so that’s what I’m going with.
31) New England Patriots
Player: Edge T.J. Parker (Clemson) – 1st, 38.57%
Reasoning: Miami and New England are trade back candidates by my numbers, but with Simpson off the board, and the medical hanging over McCoy’s head, I’m not really sure who teams would want to trade back in for. So, New England sticks and picks, and per my predictive model, that pick is Parker, another highly talented defender on that Clemson team who severely underwhelmed.
32) Seattle Seahawks
Player: CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) – Tied for 1st, 33.33%
Reasoning: Seattle has two positions that they are likely to go with: Corner or Running Back. My numbers see it the exact same way. It seems likely they will either take McCoy or Price. I think getting a top 10 talent like McCoy at 32 is worth risking the baggage that comes with that knee. If it doesn’t work out, it’s not like it really cost you all that much, and if it does work out then you landed the steal of the first round. If they decide to go Corner and avoid McCoy though, then my numbers suggest the pick will either be Chris Johnson or Keionte Scott.
The image is a screenshot from using PFF's Mock Draft Simulator here